Stephen Stanley

Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley is a Canadian singer-songwriter associated with the band The Lowest of the Low. Stanley also performs as a solo artist, sometimes in collaboration with violinist Carla MacNeil...
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The labor market is very healthy, with both jobs and wages advancing at a nice clip. This means that households will have plenty of cash to support consumption in 2006.
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I think the next really big number for the market is next Friday's retail sales figures. Up until Friday, investors are going to be focused on oil prices, the earnings, and to an extent, the election.
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The employment number will be the key for the stock market next week.
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The labor market is the linchpin of our economic forecasts, because income growth is going to sustain the consumer.
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The stock market has been pretty stubbornly hewing to the idea that the economy is slowing down and the Fed may stop soon. So to the extent that people perceive the statement as a little more hawkish, it's maybe upsetting.
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But certainly the market should be focused on the core number, since that's what the Fed looks at. We're looking for an 0.2 percent increase, which wouldn't cause a big reaction in the market.
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Not only will the market be surprised if we get to a 4.25 funds rate at the end of year, but 4.25 is by no means going to be the end. You're going to see a significant backup in yields to reflect that.
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The market seems to be betting that the storm won't have a long-term impact, but that really depends on how much the storm disrupts the oil infrastructure, something we may not know for weeks.
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The labor market appears solid heading into 2006, which could have bolstered the confidence reading in January.
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The consumer is doing quite well. The job market is doing quite well.
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The minutes kind of fed into the sentiment in the market right now that the Fed is closer to done. The minutes threw lighter fuel on that one.
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Oil is playing a positive role for stocks and the bond market today. Also, the markets are coming off a rough stretch, which makes this bounce pretty understandable.
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A few weeks ago, the market was looking for a hike in March and May, but there have been some data points recently that have thrown May into question.
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The FOMC minutes provided further affirmation to a bond market that continues to see the glass as half full.