Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley is a Canadian singer-songwriter associated with the band The Lowest of the Low. Stanley also performs as a solo artist, sometimes in collaboration with violinist Carla MacNeil...
continued convince data hikes march market primarily rate recipe report softness sounds
Today's report should convince most market participants that the March softness in the data was primarily a one-month phenomenon. Sounds like a recipe for continued 25 basis-point rate hikes for the foreseeable future.
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Barring an abrupt weakening in the economy, the Fed will continue to hike rates at a measured pace for the foreseeable future.
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If inflation doesn't accelerate much from here, and the Fed just raises rates a little more, we might see something like the end of the 1990s again. But if the Fed has to really ramp up to fight inflation, it's going to be a much worse environment than investors realize.
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If the economy keeps growing at a faster pace, the Fed may need to boost rates for longer than what markets are currently expecting. I think that's what the stock and bond markets are reacting to right now.
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Not only will the market be surprised if we get to a 4.25 funds rate at the end of year, but 4.25 is by no means going to be the end. You're going to see a significant backup in yields to reflect that.
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There is sufficient upbeat news on the economy to convince the FOMC to tighten. If the economy warrants a rate hike, the Fed would be doing a great service by delivering.
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The case for continued rate hikes has become, if anything, more compelling since Katrina.
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The idea that the Federal Reserve is close to being done with interest rate hikes has certainly benefited the bond market, and stocks have benefited as well.
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The economy is clearly advancing nicely right now and it will in our view take more than a 5% funds rate to slow it down.
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The Fed will have to take rates beyond neutral to a somewhat restrictive pace. Today's data totally supports that view of the world and should...eliminate any doubts about the near-term course of monetary policy.
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January auto sales were clearly much better than expected. We are on a pace to see a month-to-month increase in the seasonally adjusted sales pace, perhaps to around 17.7 million units or so.
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Ironically, with all this strength, the net effect of these data on the fourth-quarter GDP number could be flat or possibly even marginally negative. This is because durable goods inventories were flat, which should more or less offset the positive influence of the stronger-than-anticipated December shipments figures. For first quarter GDP, however, these data are unambiguously positive.
area clear definitely less
It is definitely clear that (housing) is one area where you will see less growth,
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Katrina is a little bit different because you're also threatening the energy system. We're still trying to figure out exactly where we are on that. The near-term implications are pretty extreme.