Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
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We still see limited penetration into the rest of the economy. It's too early to say you're seeing pricing power to pass on the energy cost increases just because you saw just a jump in the core PPI number. The world has changed. In the old traditional world, whenever you had mature expansion, you had pricing power. Today with globalization, that's no longer the case.
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The CPI report continues to be encouraging, ... These numbers are stimulating consumer spending by giving consumers more spending power. At the same time, lower inflation will also encourage the central bank to do whatever they need to do.
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There are a lot of good factors out there.
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With this figure, markets can remain all but assured that the Fed will continue to push short term rates higher well into 2006.
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Buyers are going to be in a sweet spot in about three to six months. The speculators who are still holding properties will be panicking by then as their carrying costs mount. It won't be a bloodbath, but that's when prices should be at their lowest.
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The impact of higher energy prices is starting to bite corporate America. It's either going to raise costs or lower demand.
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It could be the weather. Distribution costs increase with the cost of energy. Fertilizer goes up when energy goes up. There are various reasons for the surge.
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Our own studies have shown that consumers tend to switch over to non-store outlets in times of higher energy costs .
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Policy makers make policy on long-term trends, ... This is temporary. Labor costs will eventually come down.
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Benefit costs went up because of medical care costs, ... not firms trying to wow employees. They're not wowing employees. Look at the layoff data.
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This is an exciting number, but it was warmer in November than usual. The warm weather is the equivalent of zero-percent financing on automobile sales. You're going to see this work itself off in months to come.
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This clearly shows that relying on the household survey's employment measure as a barometer of labor market conditions is not only risky, but also an incorrect assumption,
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Even though, internally, I think they are probably debating it, it's just too early to make an announcement to publicize that debate.
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This employment report means that the phrase 'considerable period' will stick around for a considerably longer period of time.