Bill Cheney
Bill Cheney
fact future looks people prices
The fact that prices have come down makes people feel better and they think the future looks better.
job solid
We have solid job growth, but no significant inflationary pressures.
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With today's report, the odds of a negative quarter of GDP growth have increased substantially, and the chances of a full-fledged recession just went up -- perhaps approaching 50-50. Job losses cut directly into the spending of the newly unemployed, and indirectly tend to have a very real impact on the confidence of those who are still working. If demand falls, firms will lay off more employees, and the downward spiral could put us over the edge into a bona fide recession before the Fed's actions can take effect.
domestic growth increased negative odds quarter
With today's report, the odds of a negative quarter of GDP (gross domestic product) growth have increased substantially.
catching driving economy force forward growth happens hard job labor matter months moving quite rate several stop
We're still several months away from job growth catching up with labor force growth and driving the unemployment rate back down, but that's really just a matter of time. Our economy is moving again, and once that happens it's actually quite hard to stop the forward momentum.
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We're still looking at job growth, but not enough to prevent unemployment from rising. If there were no special factors explaining this, it would be a rather dramatic piece of news.