Bill Cheney
Bill Cheney
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I think we're toward the end of a period of real weakness and, by the third quarter, all the money (Fed Chairman Alan) Greenspan and the Fed have been pumping out will start to be spent.
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This is a perfect jobs report. Job growth slowed significantly and there are absolutely no signs of inflation. Greenspan may be pulling off what once seemed impossible: two soft landings in one economic expansion.
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Weak employment growth but higher hourly earnings point Greenspan and the Fed in two different directions. Either the economy is slowing down and the Fed needs to sit tight, or inflation is starting to take off and another tap on the brakes may be necessary.
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If there is a danger, it is that the report isn't capturing creative and hidden ways employers are boosting wages. I'm sure Greenspan has a sneaking suspicion that these kinds of things are happening and that they may at some point provoke a burst of wage inflation.
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The Greenspan Fed has inaction down to a fine art. They stood by through much of the late 1990s, allowing a very beneficial reduction in unemployment without suffering any inflationary consequences. When they do have to move, they do so quickly and surgically.
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It's too early to call a turn in the trend, so Alan Greenspan can't relax completely, but it's certainly the kind of report that will help him sleep better. There's still no sign of wage inflation and we seem to be heading for a soft landing: a smooth slowdown into sustainable non-inflationary growth.
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I think it's totally a blip. I expect to see pretty healthy growth in 2006. We'll be back to 4 percent next quarter.
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People are now looking for jobs because it is now worth looking.
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Rising unemployment, ironically, contains good news. It signals people who had given up and dropped out of the work force are back looking for jobs. Clearly, they have hope there are jobs to be found.
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Regardless of what happens to energy prices and interest rates, homebuilding is going to happen and that's going to affect the national statistics but not by a huge amount ... it sort of disappears in the context of the national economy.
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Record or near-record trade deficits spark howls of concern about the threat posed to the economic expansion, but like inflation, the trade deficit's bark has been far worse than its bite. April's deficit, another near record, simply shows that we are still importing like there is no tomorrow.
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Most of the really alarming data has related to the manufacturing sector, which clearly is slumping. But since it only accounts for about 15 percent of total employment, it isn't dragging everything else down.
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Job losses cut directly into the spending of the newly unemployed, and indirectly tend to have a very real impact on the confidence of those who are still working. If demand falls, firms will lay off more employees, and the downward spiral could put us over the edge into a bona fide recession before the Fed's actions can take effect.
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Job growth has kind of stalled out. It's a puzzle.