Bill Cheney
Bill Cheney
job market
I think the job market is on a roll.
absolutely change conduct monetary setting
I think we're going to see absolutely more of the same. I don't think there will be any discernible change in the conduct of setting monetary policy.
coming fairly fed percent starts sticks
If unemployment sticks at about 6.0 percent and starts coming down, the Fed will probably feel it has to start tightening fairly soon.
gas goes living oil price
If you're living on the edge, then when the price of gas and heating oil goes up, you end up over the edge.
alan call certainly early greenspan heading help inflation relax report seem sign sleep smooth soft turn wage
It's too early to call a turn in the trend, so Alan Greenspan can't relax completely, but it's certainly the kind of report that will help him sleep better. There's still no sign of wage inflation and we seem to be heading for a soft landing: a smooth slowdown into sustainable non-inflationary growth.
benign
It's really a benign number, so no real new news.
carry chairman fed latitude wants
The Fed chairman has a lot of latitude to do things the way he wants to. I don't see why he wouldn't carry the day the way he wants to.
inflation problem stage
It's still the same story, that there really is no inflation problem at this stage of the cycle.
almost anywhere growth looking shocking
It's shocking that you're looking at almost no growth anywhere else.
aggressive cut expected far fed lead likely meeting month report seems
I think this report will lead the Fed to be much more aggressive than we would have expected a month ago. An inter-meeting cut seems far more likely now, and a cut at the May (policy makers) meeting seems all but certain.
against feared hurricane katrina looking odds oil price prove shock slow worry
Looking forward, we have Katrina and the price of oil to worry about. I think the odds are still against it, but Hurricane Katrina could prove to be the exogenous shock that we've feared could dramatically slow or even derail the expansion.
crazy faster fed pressure raise rates
I don't think the Fed is under pressure to raise rates faster than they have been but I think they'd be crazy to think that they should be done tightening.
aggressive almost certainly credible deal delayed demand effects enjoy farther faster fed monetary problem rates rise seems start year
When demand does start to rebound, the Fed will have to deal with the delayed effects of a year of aggressive monetary stimulus. Short-term rates will almost certainly have to rise faster and farther than seems credible today. Of course, this is a problem that we now feel we would enjoy facing.
certain changed confidence data less momentum month past
I think the economy's momentum is still upward, but the data that have come out in the past month have weakened my confidence in that prediction. I haven't changed my forecast, but I've become a lot less certain about it.