Bill Cheney
Bill Cheney
above consumer hang level spending trend
I don't really see this as down; it's really flat. We're still at a level well above the post-Sept. 11 low; and so long as it doesn't trend downward, I'm comfortable with the idea that consumer spending is going to hang in there.
bail deciding fourth good late mid people results starting true whether
By mid to late October, you're getting into the fourth quarter, and people are starting to look at their year-end results and deciding whether they can bail out now and still look good for the year. That's going to be as true now as it was (in 1987).
economic fact good month news
But you have to come back to the fact that another good month is another good month. And that is good news for the economic recovery.
inflation potential reality
Inflation is a potential risk. It's not a reality yet.
believe concern discount economy fed hard imagine inflation legitimate pumping starts
I don't think we can discount the legitimate concern that the Fed has been pumping too much liquidity into the economy. It may be that they have to backpedal furiously as the economy starts to recover. Inflation has been down for so long, it may be hard to imagine it ever getting back up -- but you better believe it still can.
confidence consumer feels holding low mainly maybe positive
Granted, it feels bad, but that's mainly because we had it so good. In reality, we still have positive growth, low unemployment (even if it rising), and low inflation. Maybe that's why consumer confidence is holding up.
absence current economy inflation moving problem whatever
For now, however, inflation is a problem that we would welcome. Over the short-term, in the absence of any current inflation threats, it makes sense to do whatever we can to get the economy moving again.
boost cuts defense growth net next percent produce rise risks spending stimulus tax
If even 5 to 6 percent GDP growth isn't enough to get any net hiring, then the risks rise that the stimulus from the tax cuts and defense spending could produce a one-time boost that will fizzle out next year.
chance definitely hike jobs june looks percent rate report strong
I'd say there's only a 25 percent chance of a rate hike in June even. Even with another strong jobs report Friday, they'll want to have something that looks more definitely like a trend.
bills continues economy impact last record remarkable
Considering the impact of the hurricanes and record heating bills last year, the economy continues to show remarkable resilience.
buying money mostly people reflects
It reflects that people mostly still have their jobs, still have their money and people are still buying houses.
clearly ease fed free good inclined means
It's clearly good news. Clearly it means that the Fed is still free to ease as much as they are inclined to.
buying christmas close coming consumer gauge industry number onto patterns perhaps represents retail sales season sentiment shopping since year
The retail sales number is perhaps more important than it would look at first sight. Since we're coming so close to the Christmas shopping season when most of the retail sales of the year happen, anything that represents a gauge of consumer sentiment and consumer buying patterns is going to be latched onto by the retail industry as an important indicator.
cutting fed number rates relax
This is kind of number that will let the Fed relax and keep cutting rates as long as they see a need.