Bill Cheney
Bill Cheney
absolutely change conduct monetary setting
I think we're going to see absolutely more of the same. I don't think there will be any discernible change in the conduct of setting monetary policy.
absolutely bond bounce gaining ground headline lost market number trend underlying
The headline number is absolutely kind of a shock, I think the bond market is probably overreacting. It's a bounce back from September, but we're still not gaining back all the ground lost in September. The underlying trend is still kind of down.
net
Corporations may be ultra-cautious, but at least they're not slashing jobs, and that's a net positive.
appeal bad certain inflation nice number round stop
There is a certain appeal to going to a nice round number like 5 percent. But if we get some bad inflation numbers, then they won't stop at 5 percent.
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There are a lot of untied ends so far, but we want to get these students into school, in a stable environment, as soon as possible. We want these students to be in an environment where they will be cared for - that will help them rebuild their lives and give them a sense that they are moving on.
anytime coming domestic either full hard soft soon spinning stuck
We're not only stuck in a soft patch; we're spinning our wheels. To get back to full employment, we need a lot more demand, and that's hard to see coming anytime soon from either domestic or international sources.
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We knew that it was a wet month and that rain tends to keep people away from shopping, so I thing a large part of this is actually a weather story.
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While the labor market may feel like the weakest link in the recovery, really it's the last link. As long as employment doesn't collapse, the recovery will continue to gain strength. As it does, slowly jobs will be added and they will be the fuel that kicks the economy into a higher gear.
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We were expecting to celebrate New Year's and instead got slapped with a pink slip.
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We're still looking at job growth, but not enough to prevent unemployment from rising. If there were no special factors explaining this, it would be a rather dramatic piece of news.
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We're still several months away from job growth catching up with labor force growth and driving the unemployment rate back down, but that's really just a matter of time. Our economy is moving again, and once that happens it's actually quite hard to stop the forward momentum.
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With today's report, the odds of a negative quarter of GDP (gross domestic product) growth have increased substantially.
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What worries me the most is a slip backward becoming a spiral downward. Jobs are the linchpin of both consumer confidence and consumer spending. We can't sustain many more losses like this without that downward spiral getting started. This is the kind of data that could make the Fed think about easing again.
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Weak employment growth but higher hourly earnings point Greenspan and the Fed in two different directions. Either the economy is slowing down and the Fed needs to sit tight, or inflation is starting to take off and another tap on the brakes may be necessary.