Bill Cheney
Bill Cheney
certainly economy inflation problem weak
There really is no inflation problem right now, and there's certainly nothing in the pipeline, with the economy as weak as it is.
inflation wholesale
There really is no inflation at the wholesale level.
capital either gains good hiring lower profits serious spending sustain wage wages
There must be some serious gains going on in either profits or wage rates. If it's going to profits, we should see more capital spending and hiring ahead, and if it's going to wages or lower prices, that should sustain consumption growth. Either way, it's good for the outlook.
enormous incidents month particular potential push release retail sales series timing
This is a series that bounces around from one month to the next. There's enormous potential for particular incidents -- the weather, the timing of Easter, the release of a new movie -- to push retail sales around from one month to the next.
absolutely economic greenspan growth jobs perfect pulling seemed signs soft
This is a perfect jobs report. Job growth slowed significantly and there are absolutely no signs of inflation. Greenspan may be pulling off what once seemed impossible: two soft landings in one economic expansion.
people recession report represents simply
This is simply what a recession is like. This report represents real people and real pain, especially around the holidays.
employment good heading jobs looking moment point rate sign start
The moment they think there are jobs there, they'll be out looking and the employment rate will start heading up again. I think that's on the whole a good sign at this point in the cycle.
bottom consensus expecting fact less line number
The bottom line is, any number over 50 is encouraging. The fact that it's a little less than the consensus was expecting I don't think is that big of a deal.
fact future looks people prices
The fact that prices have come down makes people feel better and they think the future looks better.
job solid
We have solid job growth, but no significant inflationary pressures.
brakes earnings economy either employment fed greenspan growth higher inflation needs point sit slowing starting tap weak
Weak employment growth but higher hourly earnings point Greenspan and the Fed in two different directions. Either the economy is slowing down and the Fed needs to sit tight, or inflation is starting to take off and another tap on the brakes may be necessary.
corporate flow gains job market rapid seems until wages
In principle, rapid productivity should make wages rise, but it seems that until the job market tightens up a bit, all the productivity gains flow to corporate profits.
burst capturing creative danger employers greenspan happening hidden kinds point provoke report sure suspicion wage ways
If there is a danger, it is that the report isn't capturing creative and hidden ways employers are boosting wages. I'm sure Greenspan has a sneaking suspicion that these kinds of things are happening and that they may at some point provoke a burst of wage inflation.
black clear danger mood people prevent signs trigger
If there are danger signs brewing ... that make people very, very nervous, I don't see anything that could prevent the same kind of mood (as Black Monday's) from reappearing. It's clear that you don't need a very concrete, cut-and-dried kind of trigger to make people stampede if they're in the mood to be stampeded.