Bill Cheney
Bill Cheney
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Rising unemployment, ironically, contains good news. It signals people who had given up and dropped out of the work force are back looking for jobs. Clearly, they have hope there are jobs to be found.
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Even though it's improving, there's still an awful lot of people who dropped out of work force and are waiting to be pulled back in.
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The good news for workers is that productivity growth cannot continue at this pace. Demand will translate into jobs very soon, and in fact I think it's happening right now.
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Santa's workshop will be operating pretty much at full capacity. There just probably won't be much elf overtime.
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The unemployment situation won't truly improve until businesses increase hiring a lot more than they did in February. It takes roughly 150,000 new jobs per month just to keep the unemployment rate steady, as population growth increases the work force.
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I think we're toward the end of a period of real weakness and, by the third quarter, all the money (Fed Chairman Alan) Greenspan and the Fed have been pumping out will start to be spent.
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I think it's totally a blip. I expect to see pretty healthy growth in 2006. We'll be back to 4 percent next quarter.
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People are now looking for jobs because it is now worth looking.
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Regardless of what happens to energy prices and interest rates, homebuilding is going to happen and that's going to affect the national statistics but not by a huge amount ... it sort of disappears in the context of the national economy.
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Record or near-record trade deficits spark howls of concern about the threat posed to the economic expansion, but like inflation, the trade deficit's bark has been far worse than its bite. April's deficit, another near record, simply shows that we are still importing like there is no tomorrow.
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Most of the really alarming data has related to the manufacturing sector, which clearly is slumping. But since it only accounts for about 15 percent of total employment, it isn't dragging everything else down.
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Job losses cut directly into the spending of the newly unemployed, and indirectly tend to have a very real impact on the confidence of those who are still working. If demand falls, firms will lay off more employees, and the downward spiral could put us over the edge into a bona fide recession before the Fed's actions can take effect.
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Job growth has kind of stalled out. It's a puzzle.
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I think it is clear that, whatever the economic outlook was on Monday, the outlook is shakier now, and there are stronger arguments for cutting rates.