Bill Cheney
Bill Cheney
corporate flow gains job market rapid seems until wages
In principle, rapid productivity should make wages rise, but it seems that until the job market tightens up a bit, all the productivity gains flow to corporate profits.
economic fact good month news
But you have to come back to the fact that another good month is another good month. And that is good news for the economic recovery.
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This is a series that bounces around from one month to the next. There's enormous potential for particular incidents -- the weather, the timing of Easter, the release of a new movie -- to push retail sales around from one month to the next.
momentum quite
Everything else suggests quite a lot of momentum in the economy.
inflation wholesale
There really is no inflation at the wholesale level.
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Hurricane Katrina undoubtedly devastated individuals and communities... but on a macro-economic basis it's clear that the US economy has more than enough momentum to absorb the hit and recover quickly.
alan call certainly early greenspan heading help inflation relax report seem sign sleep smooth soft turn wage
It's too early to call a turn in the trend, so Alan Greenspan can't relax completely, but it's certainly the kind of report that will help him sleep better. There's still no sign of wage inflation and we seem to be heading for a soft landing: a smooth slowdown into sustainable non-inflationary growth.
employment good heading jobs looking moment point rate sign start
The moment they think there are jobs there, they'll be out looking and the employment rate will start heading up again. I think that's on the whole a good sign at this point in the cycle.
confidence consumer feels holding low mainly maybe positive
Granted, it feels bad, but that's mainly because we had it so good. In reality, we still have positive growth, low unemployment (even if it rising), and low inflation. Maybe that's why consumer confidence is holding up.
boost cuts defense growth net next percent produce rise risks spending stimulus tax
If even 5 to 6 percent GDP growth isn't enough to get any net hiring, then the risks rise that the stimulus from the tax cuts and defense spending could produce a one-time boost that will fizzle out next year.
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The advance GDP report is a funny animal. It's a combination of data that's already out there combined with official guesses. There isn't a lot of real new news.
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The bottom line is, any number over 50 is encouraging. The fact that it's a little less than the consensus was expecting I don't think is that big of a deal.
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Looking ahead beyond the current gloom, there is a serious risk that we already have inflationary forces baked into the system. By late spring, the Fed could be cranking up interest rates even faster than they cut them.
chance definitely hike jobs june looks percent rate report strong
I'd say there's only a 25 percent chance of a rate hike in June even. Even with another strong jobs report Friday, they'll want to have something that looks more definitely like a trend.