Bill Cheney
Bill Cheney
series
It's another in the long series of the no-news-is-good-news story about inflation.
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I think we're toward the end of a period of real weakness and, by the third quarter, all the money (Fed Chairman Alan) Greenspan and the Fed have been pumping out will start to be spent.
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I think the job market is on a roll. Businesses are doing pretty well these days. Profits are growing nicely. I think businesses are at a point where they feel more comfortable adding people.
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It's still the same story, that there really is no inflation problem at this stage of the cycle.
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In principle, rapid productivity should make wages rise, but it seems that until the job market tightens up a bit, all the productivity gains flow to corporate profits.
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But you have to come back to the fact that another good month is another good month. And that is good news for the economic recovery.
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This is a series that bounces around from one month to the next. There's enormous potential for particular incidents -- the weather, the timing of Easter, the release of a new movie -- to push retail sales around from one month to the next.
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Everything else suggests quite a lot of momentum in the economy.
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There really is no inflation at the wholesale level.
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Hurricane Katrina undoubtedly devastated individuals and communities... but on a macro-economic basis it's clear that the US economy has more than enough momentum to absorb the hit and recover quickly.
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It's too early to call a turn in the trend, so Alan Greenspan can't relax completely, but it's certainly the kind of report that will help him sleep better. There's still no sign of wage inflation and we seem to be heading for a soft landing: a smooth slowdown into sustainable non-inflationary growth.
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Santa's workshop will be operating pretty much at full capacity. There just probably won't be much elf overtime.
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It certainly too soon to be sure, but I think it's a very strong indication that hiring is getting on track.
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If you're living on the edge, then when the price of gas and heating oil goes up, you end up over the edge.