Bill Cheney
Bill Cheney
again missing rate shooting unless
Unless we're missing something, the unemployment rate will be shooting back up again very soon.
absorb basis clear devastated economy hit hurricane katrina momentum recover
Hurricane Katrina undoubtedly devastated individuals and communities... but on a macro-economic basis it's clear that the US economy has more than enough momentum to absorb the hit and recover quickly.
certainty largely
But that's still largely a hope, not a certainty.
appear businesses increase increasing labor profits quite seem
Businesses seem to be doing everything they can to increase profits without increasing hiring. Unfortunately for the labor market, they appear to be quite successful.
backward becoming both confidence consumer data downward easing fed jobs losses slip spiral sustain worries
What worries me the most is a slip backward becoming a spiral downward. Jobs are the linchpin of both consumer confidence and consumer spending. We can't sustain many more losses like this without that downward spiral getting started. This is the kind of data that could make the Fed think about easing again.
absence core few given good happening months pause rather risk seems time
Given the absence of core inflation, it seems to me as good a time as any to pause and see what's happening for a few months rather than overshoot and risk a recession.
celebrate expecting instead pink
We were expecting to celebrate New Year's and instead got slapped with a pink slip.
added continue economy employment fuel gain higher jobs kicks labor last link market recovery slowly weakest
While the labor market may feel like the weakest link in the recovery, really it's the last link. As long as employment doesn't collapse, the recovery will continue to gain strength. As it does, slowly jobs will be added and they will be the fuel that kicks the economy into a higher gear.
coming jobs large looking number people seeing worth
You are seeing a large number of people coming out of the woodwork because there are jobs to be found. People are now looking for jobs because it is now worth looking.
clear evidence next recovery though time
Even though there probably is a recovery in the pipeline, there isn't going to be any clear evidence of it by the time we get around to the next meeting.
awful dropped force people pulled though waiting work
Even though it's improving, there's still an awful lot of people who dropped out of work force and are waiting to be pulled back in.
cannot continue demand fact good growth happening jobs news translate workers
The good news for workers is that productivity growth cannot continue at this pace. Demand will translate into jobs very soon, and in fact I think it's happening right now.
momentum quite
Everything else suggests quite a lot of momentum in the economy.
bets committed fed guessing january point raising rates
At this point I am guessing that the Fed is pretty committed to raising rates in January but after that all bets are off.