Bill Cheney
Bill Cheney
consistent consumer consumers economy half pulling road second spending view
This is consistent with the view that the U.S. economy really is on the road to recovery. Consumers are not pulling back. Consumer spending is going to get us into a second half 2001 rebound.
series
It's another in the long series of the no-news-is-good-news story about inflation.
absorb increase jobs labor month natural numbers order positive rate rather smaller takes
It takes something on the order of 150,000 new jobs a month to absorb the natural increase in the labor force. As long as we keep getting smaller positive numbers than that, the unemployment rate should be trending up rather than down.
consumer economy expansion keeping true
It's reassuring. It is true that the consumer is the only part of the economy that's keeping the expansion going right now.
assume gets jump outlook start tend time worry
Any time there's a jump in one index, you start to worry about the other one. And any time one of them is tame, you tend to assume that the outlook for the other gets better.
indicator time
Every time you see another indicator that they (consumers) are still spending, that's encouraging.
businesses growth hiring improve increase increases jobs month per population rate roughly situation takes truly until work
The unemployment situation won't truly improve until businesses increase hiring a lot more than they did in February. It takes roughly 150,000 new jobs per month just to keep the unemployment rate steady, as population growth increases the work force.
absolutely bond bounce gaining ground headline lost market number trend underlying
The headline number is absolutely kind of a shock, I think the bond market is probably overreacting. It's a bounce back from September, but we're still not gaining back all the ground lost in September. The underlying trend is still kind of down.
allowing beneficial fed fine greenspan inaction late quickly reduction stood suffering
The Greenspan Fed has inaction down to a fine art. They stood by through much of the late 1990s, allowing a very beneficial reduction in unemployment without suffering any inflationary consequences. When they do have to move, they do so quickly and surgically.
almost early economy evidence fed finally hints inflation moving next pressures threat until
The inflation threat has receded yet again. I can't see the Fed moving now at least until early next year. They have almost no evidence of inflationary pressures and there are hints that the economy finally is slowing.
confidence consumer evidence items liable month next spending
All the evidence on consumer confidence would tell us that all spending on big-ticket items is liable to plummet in the next month or two.
along clearly decent economy fed moving needs neither nor patch roaring soft
The economy is neither roaring nor stalling; it's clearly out of the soft patch and moving along at a decent pace, and that's all the Fed needs right now.
certainly hiring indication soon strong
It certainly too soon to be sure, but I think it's a very strong indication that hiring is getting on track.
adding businesses growing job market point profits
I think the job market is on a roll. Businesses are doing pretty well these days. Profits are growing nicely. I think businesses are at a point where they feel more comfortable adding people.