Bill Cheney
Bill Cheney
developing inflation jobs market overall percent positive rise wages
I don't think it really suggests there is any inflation developing -- a 0.3 percent rise in wages is pretty manageable. But it's a pretty positive report; it suggests that the overall jobs market is pretty healthy.
chairman fed greenspan money period pumping start third toward weakness
I think we're toward the end of a period of real weakness and, by the third quarter, all the money (Fed Chairman Alan) Greenspan and the Fed have been pumping out will start to be spent.
expect growth healthy next percent totally
I think it's totally a blip. I expect to see pretty healthy growth in 2006. We'll be back to 4 percent next quarter.
jobs looking people worth
People are now looking for jobs because it is now worth looking.
contains dropped force given good hope jobs looking people rising signals work
Rising unemployment, ironically, contains good news. It signals people who had given up and dropped out of the work force are back looking for jobs. Clearly, they have hope there are jobs to be found.
affect amount context disappears energy happens huge interest national prices regardless sort statistics
Regardless of what happens to energy prices and interest rates, homebuilding is going to happen and that's going to affect the national statistics but not by a huge amount ... it sort of disappears in the context of the national economy.
bark concern deficits economic far near record shows simply spark threat trade worse
Record or near-record trade deficits spark howls of concern about the threat posed to the economic expansion, but like inflation, the trade deficit's bark has been far worse than its bite. April's deficit, another near record, simply shows that we are still importing like there is no tomorrow.
accounts alarming clearly data dragging percent related since total
Most of the really alarming data has related to the manufacturing sector, which clearly is slumping. But since it only accounts for about 15 percent of total employment, it isn't dragging everything else down.
actions bona confidence cut demand directly downward edge impact indirectly job lay losses newly recession spending spiral tend
Job losses cut directly into the spending of the newly unemployed, and indirectly tend to have a very real impact on the confidence of those who are still working. If demand falls, firms will lay off more employees, and the downward spiral could put us over the edge into a bona fide recession before the Fed's actions can take effect.
growth job
Job growth has kind of stalled out. It's a puzzle.
clear cutting economic outlook stronger whatever
I think it is clear that, whatever the economic outlook was on Monday, the outlook is shakier now, and there are stronger arguments for cutting rates.
bad case economy edge good great nasty news outlook quite recession skating suffering
While we're still skating on the edge of recession, I think the outlook for the economy is now quite encouraging. We may not feel great right now, but if a recession is a nasty case of the flu, the good news is that all we're suffering now is just a really bad cold.
ahead baked beyond cranking current cut faster fed forces interest late looking rates risk serious
Looking ahead beyond the current gloom, there is a serious risk that we already have inflationary forces baked into the system. By late spring, the Fed could be cranking up interest rates even faster than they cut them.
advance combined data funny official report
The advance GDP report is a funny animal. It's a combination of data that's already out there combined with official guesses. There isn't a lot of real new news.