Bill Cheney
Bill Cheney
actions bona chances confidence cut demand directly downward edge growth impact increased indirectly job lay losses negative newly odds perhaps quarter recession spending spiral tend
With today's report, the odds of a negative quarter of GDP growth have increased substantially, and the chances of a full-fledged recession just went up -- perhaps approaching 50-50. Job losses cut directly into the spending of the newly unemployed, and indirectly tend to have a very real impact on the confidence of those who are still working. If demand falls, firms will lay off more employees, and the downward spiral could put us over the edge into a bona fide recession before the Fed's actions can take effect.
inflation potential reality
Inflation is a potential risk. It's not a reality yet.
absence current economy inflation moving problem whatever
For now, however, inflation is a problem that we would welcome. Over the short-term, in the absence of any current inflation threats, it makes sense to do whatever we can to get the economy moving again.
inflation problem stage
It's still the same story, that there really is no inflation problem at this stage of the cycle.
inflation wholesale
There really is no inflation at the wholesale level.
alan call certainly early greenspan heading help inflation relax report seem sign sleep smooth soft turn wage
It's too early to call a turn in the trend, so Alan Greenspan can't relax completely, but it's certainly the kind of report that will help him sleep better. There's still no sign of wage inflation and we seem to be heading for a soft landing: a smooth slowdown into sustainable non-inflationary growth.
cause cents continue ease economy growing healthy inch inflation less might pressures rate rise wages worry
The rise in wages of 6 cents might cause jitters, but wage inflation is less of a worry now, especially with productivity still growing at a healthy clip. As the economy slows, the unemployment rate will continue to inch up and wage pressures should ease further.
few fits inflation labor market months picture turned
It fits in with the picture that the labor market is turned, inflation has turned and in a few more months they'll be tightening.
developing inflation jobs market overall percent positive rise wages
I don't think it really suggests there is any inflation developing -- a 0.3 percent rise in wages is pretty manageable. But it's a pretty positive report; it suggests that the overall jobs market is pretty healthy.
certainly economy inflation problem weak
There really is no inflation problem right now, and there's certainly nothing in the pipeline, with the economy as weak as it is.
elf full operating workshop
Santa's workshop will be operating pretty much at full capacity. There just probably won't be much elf overtime.
coming fairly fed percent starts sticks
If unemployment sticks at about 6.0 percent and starts coming down, the Fed will probably feel it has to start tightening fairly soon.
series
It's another in the long series of the no-news-is-good-news story about inflation.
chairman fed greenspan money period pumping start third toward weakness
I think we're toward the end of a period of real weakness and, by the third quarter, all the money (Fed Chairman Alan) Greenspan and the Fed have been pumping out will start to be spent.