Bill Cheney
Bill Cheney
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With today's report, the odds of a negative quarter of GDP growth have increased substantially, and the chances of a full-fledged recession just went up -- perhaps approaching 50-50. Job losses cut directly into the spending of the newly unemployed, and indirectly tend to have a very real impact on the confidence of those who are still working. If demand falls, firms will lay off more employees, and the downward spiral could put us over the edge into a bona fide recession before the Fed's actions can take effect.
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With today's report, the odds of a negative quarter of GDP (gross domestic product) growth have increased substantially.
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Looking forward, we have Katrina and the price of oil to worry about. I think the odds are still against it, but Hurricane Katrina could prove to be the exogenous shock that we've feared could dramatically slow or even derail the expansion.
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I think we're toward the end of a period of real weakness and, by the third quarter, all the money (Fed Chairman Alan) Greenspan and the Fed have been pumping out will start to be spent.
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I think it's totally a blip. I expect to see pretty healthy growth in 2006. We'll be back to 4 percent next quarter.
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People are now looking for jobs because it is now worth looking.
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Rising unemployment, ironically, contains good news. It signals people who had given up and dropped out of the work force are back looking for jobs. Clearly, they have hope there are jobs to be found.
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Regardless of what happens to energy prices and interest rates, homebuilding is going to happen and that's going to affect the national statistics but not by a huge amount ... it sort of disappears in the context of the national economy.
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Record or near-record trade deficits spark howls of concern about the threat posed to the economic expansion, but like inflation, the trade deficit's bark has been far worse than its bite. April's deficit, another near record, simply shows that we are still importing like there is no tomorrow.
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Most of the really alarming data has related to the manufacturing sector, which clearly is slumping. But since it only accounts for about 15 percent of total employment, it isn't dragging everything else down.
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Job losses cut directly into the spending of the newly unemployed, and indirectly tend to have a very real impact on the confidence of those who are still working. If demand falls, firms will lay off more employees, and the downward spiral could put us over the edge into a bona fide recession before the Fed's actions can take effect.
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Job growth has kind of stalled out. It's a puzzle.
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I think it is clear that, whatever the economic outlook was on Monday, the outlook is shakier now, and there are stronger arguments for cutting rates.
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While we're still skating on the edge of recession, I think the outlook for the economy is now quite encouraging. We may not feel great right now, but if a recession is a nasty case of the flu, the good news is that all we're suffering now is just a really bad cold.