Bill Cheney
Bill Cheney
fact future looks people prices
The fact that prices have come down makes people feel better and they think the future looks better.
actions bona chances confidence cut demand directly downward edge growth impact increased indirectly job lay losses negative newly odds perhaps quarter recession spending spiral tend
With today's report, the odds of a negative quarter of GDP growth have increased substantially, and the chances of a full-fledged recession just went up -- perhaps approaching 50-50. Job losses cut directly into the spending of the newly unemployed, and indirectly tend to have a very real impact on the confidence of those who are still working. If demand falls, firms will lay off more employees, and the downward spiral could put us over the edge into a bona fide recession before the Fed's actions can take effect.
alan call certainly early greenspan heading help inflation relax report seem sign sleep smooth soft turn wage
It's too early to call a turn in the trend, so Alan Greenspan can't relax completely, but it's certainly the kind of report that will help him sleep better. There's still no sign of wage inflation and we seem to be heading for a soft landing: a smooth slowdown into sustainable non-inflationary growth.
employment good heading jobs looking moment point rate sign start
The moment they think there are jobs there, they'll be out looking and the employment rate will start heading up again. I think that's on the whole a good sign at this point in the cycle.
contains dropped force given good hope jobs looking people rising signals work
Rising unemployment, ironically, contains good news. It signals people who had given up and dropped out of the work force are back looking for jobs. Clearly, they have hope there are jobs to be found.
elf full operating workshop
Santa's workshop will be operating pretty much at full capacity. There just probably won't be much elf overtime.
coming fairly fed percent starts sticks
If unemployment sticks at about 6.0 percent and starts coming down, the Fed will probably feel it has to start tightening fairly soon.
inflation potential reality
Inflation is a potential risk. It's not a reality yet.
series
It's another in the long series of the no-news-is-good-news story about inflation.
chairman fed greenspan money period pumping start third toward weakness
I think we're toward the end of a period of real weakness and, by the third quarter, all the money (Fed Chairman Alan) Greenspan and the Fed have been pumping out will start to be spent.
adding businesses growing job market point profits
I think the job market is on a roll. Businesses are doing pretty well these days. Profits are growing nicely. I think businesses are at a point where they feel more comfortable adding people.
certainly hiring indication soon strong
It certainly too soon to be sure, but I think it's a very strong indication that hiring is getting on track.
gas goes living oil price
If you're living on the edge, then when the price of gas and heating oil goes up, you end up over the edge.
businesses growth hiring improve increase increases jobs month per population rate roughly situation takes truly until work
The unemployment situation won't truly improve until businesses increase hiring a lot more than they did in February. It takes roughly 150,000 new jobs per month just to keep the unemployment rate steady, as population growth increases the work force.