Lara Rhame
Lara Rhame
cause data economic fed given hold people quite remain volatility wonder
Given that the economic data will be strong, people will wonder why the Fed is not moving, which could cause some volatility in the markets. But we think the Fed will remain on hold for quite some time.
detail dollar employment looks orders positively react
The detail looks pretty solid, with new orders up, employment up. The dollar should react positively to this.
evidence labor process recovery sector
There still is evidence that the most important sector of the economy, the labor market, is still only in the process of stabilizing. It's not in full-fledged recovery yet.
tread
At this point, they have very little ammo left, and they will need to tread carefully.
ball changes economy eye faster fed larger outlook state stock tries underlying
People's outlook for the economy changes much faster than the underlying state of the economy. The Fed tries to keep its eye on the larger ball and not on the ping-pong ball of the stock market.
aggressive markets measure might preferred pricing
This is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation...and might have markets pricing in a more aggressive Fed.
april bad downside everybody geared markets month retail surprise toward
If we get a downside surprise in retail sales, everybody will shrug it off. We all know that April was a bad month for the economy; the markets are really geared toward May.
concerned cut economy fed fine might pain rates remains shock
This is not a 'ripping off the Band-Aid' kind of situation, where you know how much the pain will be and that you'll be fine afterwards. We don't know how well the economy has healed. The Fed remains very concerned ... that they might overshoot and give the economy such a shock they'll have to cut rates again.
aligned april believe contracted eclipse economy happen june perfect rather recession second sooner stars
The economy contracted in April and probably contracted in May; June is when we should be getting a bounce. If we're to believe all the stars are aligned for a perfect eclipse of the recession in the second half, then it should happen sooner rather than later.
dollar downward growth markets modestly negative retail revision sales weaker
On balance, it is a modestly dollar negative set of data. Retail sales growth was a little weaker than markets had expected, with a downward revision to the ex-auto sector.
fed greater inherently meeting next statement until
I don't see this as an inherently dollar-positive statement. We'll see much greater uncertainty around the Fed at least until the next meeting because this statement is so flexible.
doubt expected extremely housing knock market remains robust
I don't think there's really any doubt the housing market remains extremely robust and growing. I had expected housing to fade. Now that we're out of recession, I don't really know what would knock it down at this point.
connect current data dots fed good markets quick rate straight
The markets have probably been too quick to connect the dots from the current slew of good data straight to a Fed rate hike,
higher housing last market rates situation worried
If we're in a situation where rates are higher because the economy's great, the housing market is going to be last thing I'll be worried about.