Lara Rhame
Lara Rhame
capital fed fine markets situations stop
The Fed really comes in in situations where the capital markets stop functioning. This not that situation. They're functioning just fine -- they're just really negative.
bear burden cries deaf euro falling wish
Europeans' cries are falling on deaf ears. Their wish that the euro not bear the burden of readjustment will not make it into the G7 statement.
bear burden cries deaf euro falling wish
Europeans' cries are falling on deaf ears, ... Their wish that the euro not bear the burden of readjustment will not make it into the G7 statement.
aggressive core gave inflation markets measure might modest point preferred pricing upside
I would point to the core PCE deflator, which gave a modest upside surprise, ... This is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation ... and might have markets pricing in a more aggressive Fed.
consumer defied healthy kept past recession spending year
For the past year and a half, the consumer has defied a recession and Sept. 11 and kept spending at a healthy pace.
afford cut downside fed market markets pricing rate surprise
Market expectations have priced a rate cut in. When markets are pricing it in like that, the Fed can't afford to give a downside surprise in this environment.
becomes dependent driver economy gets housing key sector slowing vulnerable
As the economy gets more and more dependent on housing being the key driver of growth, the economy becomes more and more vulnerable to that sector slowing down.
absolutely couple growth months next
The next couple of months will be absolutely crucial. If we can get through this, we're going to have growth that will be consumer-led next year.
consumer factors fourth growth lifted looked mean months pace quarter six slower spending third weak
The confluence of factors that so lifted consumer spending in the third quarter is dissipating. Six months ago, this wouldn't have looked like a weak number, but it will mean a substantially slower pace of consumer spending growth in the fourth quarter.
anywhere confirmed excited guess markets month number seem turnaround
A turnaround in manufacturing has not been signaled anywhere else, so I guess I'm not as excited about this number as the markets seem to be. I would like to see this confirmed in another month of data.
companies guys listen nervous run
It's always been very important to listen to CEOs. When you've got guys that run companies nervous about demand, they put off investing.
certainly consider creation economic expect fed job level reflect report stage step taking towards
The report is certainly better than in December, but it just doesn't reflect the level of job creation we'd expect to see at this stage of the economic recovery, or the job creation the Fed would need to see to even consider taking that first step towards tightening.
absorb economy effects fed hike national people rate seem seems strong
Most people at the Fed seem to feel that the national economy is strong enough to absorb the effects of Katrina. That to me seems that you will not see the Fed rate hike derailed.
confidence crucial forward good patriotic question reflected rise simply spending
This is undeniably good news. The crucial question going forward is going to be if the rise in confidence is reflected in more spending on the part of the consumer, or if it's simply a patriotic rally.