Lara Rhame
Lara Rhame
add bias ease effort fed growing growth markets move policy rate somewhere sustain ways within
There's a growing effort within the Fed to look for other ways to add liquidity into markets and to sustain the interest-rate-led growth we've had. I think they are going to move to a bias to ease policy again, but I'd look for the ease somewhere else. It won't be a rate cut.
certainly create data domestic employment growth notion reinforce
The manufacturing data certainly are positive, but the employment data specifically reinforce the notion that domestic growth is not going be enough to create many jobs.
earlier gains release solid support
This is a solid (GDP) release and should support the dollar's gains from earlier this morning,
consumer gap hard shutting trade unless
I see the trade gap stabilizing, but it's hard to see it narrowing unless you get the U.S. consumer shutting down.
based consumer extremely performance resilient since
The economy's performance since Sept. 11 has been extremely resilient and based on unshakeable consumer confidence.
almost markets news people positive reaction reforms
Almost always the knee-jerk reaction in the markets to positive news on reforms is yen positive. People look at reform as being a positive thing for Japan, one day, hopefully.
add bottom closely companies line means number prices shows slow sluggish time
Every time you see a number that shows prices decelerating, immediately you have to think of sluggish re-hiring, ... It means companies will still be closely guarding the bottom line and will be slow to add to labor.
hear interest market rates stock talk
Interest rates are low, the stock market is higher, and we hear all this talk about a tax-cut package,
claims combined data dollar focus modest morning trade
It is a modest dollar negative; the trade data combined with the claims data, but the focus this morning is very much on digesting the BOJ and on payrolls tomorrow.
certainly data economy looks shape
Certainly the economy now looks like it was in better shape in January-April than expected. But these data don't show the economy making any improvement.
activity eyebrows fairly high housing leaves level markets number raise rate worry
The weaker-than-expected housing number still leaves housing at a fairly high level of activity but will raise some eyebrows as markets worry about the (Federal Reserve) overshooting (with rate hikes).
actual continues domestic drawing economics economy-and-economics everybody fed final forecast hard learn market minus rate solid
Everybody has to learn a little more economics than they want to learn, now that we're drawing more and more of a distinction between actual GDP and final domestic demand, which is GDP minus inventories. Inventories can surprise. It's hard to make a solid forecast about them, and the Fed said that. I think the market continues to overestimate Fed rate cuts.
conditions cut fed improvement inflation lower quarter signs sitting
It's not in my forecast, but it's probable, a quarter from now, if we're sitting in the same place we have been, with some uneven signs of recovery, but no real improvement in payrolls and inflation edging lower -- those are the conditions under which the Fed has cut recently.
ball bouncing driveway easiest event fairly garage onto roof slope sure unclear
Probably the easiest way to think about the Sept. 11 event is to think of bouncing a ball off the roof of a garage onto the driveway, ... The ball's bouncing around, and it's still unclear what the slope of the driveway is. But we can be fairly sure it's sloping up.