Lara Rhame
Lara Rhame
deficit dollar exists gloom market punishing size
I think a lot of gloom still exists about the size of the deficit and the market is punishing the dollar for that.
claims combined data dollar focus modest morning trade
It is a modest dollar negative; the trade data combined with the claims data, but the focus this morning is very much on digesting the BOJ and on payrolls tomorrow.
becomes deficit dependent dollar expensive foreign imports reliance shows trade vicious
This shows our big reliance on imports and foreign capital. As the dollar weakens, that becomes a more and more expensive habit. It makes our imports more expensive, makes the trade deficit wider, makes us even more dependent on foreign capital, weakening the dollar, on and on -- it's a vicious cycle.
across continue data dollar economic remains rising seen solid strong support treasury yield yields
U.S. treasury yields are rising and we've seen that support the dollar across the board. The dollar remains strong on the back of solid U.S. economic data and expectations that the 10-year yield is going to continue to go higher.
acting against broad dollar japan process seeing steady stop turning weakness
We're seeing Japan aggressively acting to keep the yen steady against the dollar and stop the process of broad dollar weakness from turning into broad yen strength.
assets attractive current declining deficit dollar foreign further less means pressure puts vicious
What the current deficit does is make the dollar vulnerable. It means we could see a vicious cycle, where a declining dollar makes U.S. assets less attractive to foreign investors, which weakens our assets further, which puts further pressure on the dollar.
call crisis dollar feedback investors negative purely shedding
What I call a dollar crisis is when you have a big, negative feedback loop, with international investors spooked purely because of the currency, shedding U.S. assets, which would be more dollar negative, and it would just feed on itself,
accepting buy carry changed compared dollar economy either fact fed high markets raising rates resistance rest strong stubborn
When we started the year, the markets were reticent to buy into either a strong U.S. economy or the Fed raising rates to 5 percent. What has changed is the market's very stubborn resistance to accepting the fact that the dollar has a pretty high carry compared to the rest of the world.
data dollar euro happen japanese positive rally versus zone
There really has not been justification for the dollar rally to happen exclusively versus the euro, especially because euro zone data has been kind of positive and Japanese data has kind of languished in a funk.
ahead bonds dollar euro forecast gotten markets optimistic seen signs size strength themselves
We've seen markets get ahead of themselves in bonds and in currencies as well. There are signs that markets have now gotten too optimistic about not only the size of the U.S. recovery, but the speed; our medium-term forecast is still very much of euro strength and dollar weakness.
ahead bonds dollar euro forecast gotten markets optimistic seen signs size strength themselves
We've seen markets get ahead of themselves in bonds and in currencies as well, ... There are signs that markets have now gotten too optimistic about not only the size of the U.S. recovery, but the speed; our medium-term forecast is still very much of euro strength and dollar weakness.
bin dollar economy falling fits led risk tape view
The bin Laden tape has led to some dollar selling. The tape fits with the view of those who think the U.S. economy is at risk of falling into a sinkhole.
dollar downward growth markets modestly negative retail revision sales weaker
On balance, it is a modestly dollar negative set of data. Retail sales growth was a little weaker than markets had expected, with a downward revision to the ex-auto sector.
detail dollar employment looks orders positively react
The detail looks pretty solid, with new orders up, employment up. The dollar should react positively to this.