Lara Rhame
Lara Rhame
bottom call history shown simply soon tough
I think it's too soon to call for a bottom simply because history has shown us that with this currency, it's a tough bet.
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I think a lot of gloom still exists about the size of the deficit and the market is punishing the dollar for that.
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It is a modest dollar negative; the trade data combined with the claims data, but the focus this morning is very much on digesting the BOJ and on payrolls tomorrow.
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We had a massive jump in the Conference Board measure of consumer sentiment last month, and everybody will be looking for confirmation of that improvement in the Michigan survey.
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Look at the subcomponents -- what are inventories and new orders in this case? ... If I were the purchasing manager at a hospital and somebody asked me about 'new orders,' what would I count? Syringes? Patients? At a bank, what's 'inventory?' Palm Pilots? Mortgages?
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Markets initially seem to be focusing more on the downward revision in growth than the upward revision to the deflator.
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Market expectations have priced a rate cut in. When markets are pricing it in like that, the Fed can't afford to give a downside surprise in this environment.
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Market expectations for both are very fluid. All of this is driving Japanese yields up and causing the market to switch from the yen into the Swiss franc as the funding currency for carry trades.
relative support
It erodes the relative interest-rate support for the dollar.
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We're not pricing in rate hikes any time soon, and today's data won't change that. Inflation is off the radar screen for policy makers.
forward global momentum
Without the U.S., there's not much forward momentum in the global economy.
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Yet again, the U.S. consumer has phenomenal resilience and is not being swayed by the employment numbers coming out.
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This was an honest-to-goodness better-than-expected report. There were no special factors in it that made it look artificially strong. The report also indicates that consumer fatigue may not be as severe as we had previously thought.
bounce chance cyclical expect
This really reduces the chance of a cyclical bounce in spending, which is what we typically expect to see in a recovery.