Lara Rhame
Lara Rhame
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We had a massive jump in the Conference Board measure of consumer sentiment last month, and everybody will be looking for confirmation of that improvement in the Michigan survey.
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If we get a downside surprise in retail sales, everybody will shrug it off. We all know that April was a bad month for the economy; the markets are really geared toward May.
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Everybody has to learn a little more economics than they want to learn, now that we're drawing more and more of a distinction between actual GDP and final domestic demand, which is GDP minus inventories. Inventories can surprise. It's hard to make a solid forecast about them, and the Fed said that. I think the market continues to overestimate Fed rate cuts.
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Everybody is spinning it in their own direction, ... The end result is the same trends remain in place: dollar weakness, euro strength and the yen strong, but not so strong as the euro.
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Everybody knows they (investors) want to buy high yielding currencies and the yen still seems like the best currency to sell to fund that.
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I think a lot of gloom still exists about the size of the deficit and the market is punishing the dollar for that.
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I think it's too soon to call for a bottom simply because history has shown us that with this currency, it's a tough bet.
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It is a modest dollar negative; the trade data combined with the claims data, but the focus this morning is very much on digesting the BOJ and on payrolls tomorrow.
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Look at the subcomponents -- what are inventories and new orders in this case? ... If I were the purchasing manager at a hospital and somebody asked me about 'new orders,' what would I count? Syringes? Patients? At a bank, what's 'inventory?' Palm Pilots? Mortgages?
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Markets initially seem to be focusing more on the downward revision in growth than the upward revision to the deflator.
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Market expectations have priced a rate cut in. When markets are pricing it in like that, the Fed can't afford to give a downside surprise in this environment.
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It erodes the relative interest-rate support for the dollar.
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We're not pricing in rate hikes any time soon, and today's data won't change that. Inflation is off the radar screen for policy makers.
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Without the U.S., there's not much forward momentum in the global economy.