Lara Rhame
Lara Rhame
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We had a massive jump in the Conference Board measure of consumer sentiment last month, and everybody will be looking for confirmation of that improvement in the Michigan survey.
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If we're in a situation where rates are higher because the economy's great, the housing market is going to be last thing I'll be worried about.
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That's one of the reasons the dollar came off at the end of last week, ... and could come off even more on Wednesday, when Greenspan speaks. He could be setting the foundation for a more range-bound trade for this coming quarter.
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Stocks in this recovery have performed far worse than the last three recoveries, ... You really have to ask yourself, as a whole, what the markets are seeing out there.
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The markets are trying to put this data in the context of how scared the Fed is by it. It's very difficult to see exactly what the Fed views as a continuation of last year's trend of broadly declining price pressure and what the Fed sees as a substantial decline.
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The consumer is the last support here, and it's not getting any help. The savings rate plus the confidence plunge add up to enough reasons for the Fed to give consumers a psychological boost.
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I think a lot of gloom still exists about the size of the deficit and the market is punishing the dollar for that.
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I think it's too soon to call for a bottom simply because history has shown us that with this currency, it's a tough bet.
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It is a modest dollar negative; the trade data combined with the claims data, but the focus this morning is very much on digesting the BOJ and on payrolls tomorrow.
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Look at the subcomponents -- what are inventories and new orders in this case? ... If I were the purchasing manager at a hospital and somebody asked me about 'new orders,' what would I count? Syringes? Patients? At a bank, what's 'inventory?' Palm Pilots? Mortgages?
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Markets initially seem to be focusing more on the downward revision in growth than the upward revision to the deflator.
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Market expectations have priced a rate cut in. When markets are pricing it in like that, the Fed can't afford to give a downside surprise in this environment.
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It erodes the relative interest-rate support for the dollar.
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We're not pricing in rate hikes any time soon, and today's data won't change that. Inflation is off the radar screen for policy makers.