Lara Rhame
Lara Rhame
context data declining difficult exactly fed last markets pressure price scared sees trend trying views
The markets are trying to put this data in the context of how scared the Fed is by it. It's very difficult to see exactly what the Fed views as a continuation of last year's trend of broadly declining price pressure and what the Fed sees as a substantial decline.
critical data dollar holiday income largely personal releases
The dollar is largely unchanged. In these holiday markets, I think releases like tomorrow's personal income data are going to be more critical than the backward-looking GDP report.
certainly create data domestic employment growth notion reinforce
The manufacturing data certainly are positive, but the employment data specifically reinforce the notion that domestic growth is not going be enough to create many jobs.
claims combined data dollar focus modest morning trade
It is a modest dollar negative; the trade data combined with the claims data, but the focus this morning is very much on digesting the BOJ and on payrolls tomorrow.
certainly data economy looks shape
Certainly the economy now looks like it was in better shape in January-April than expected. But these data don't show the economy making any improvement.
cause data economic fed given hold people quite remain volatility wonder
Given that the economic data will be strong, people will wonder why the Fed is not moving, which could cause some volatility in the markets. But we think the Fed will remain on hold for quite some time.
connect current data dots fed good markets quick rate straight
The markets have probably been too quick to connect the dots from the current slew of good data straight to a Fed rate hike,
job
I think they'll need to see a lot of job growth, not just one month.
causing excited markets near
In the near term, markets are getting very excited about the idea of the end of quantitative easing, and that's causing the yen to come under some upward pressure.
bin dollar economy falling fits led risk tape view
The bin Laden tape has led to some dollar selling. The tape fits with the view of those who think the U.S. economy is at risk of falling into a sinkhole.
connection durable economic economy goods heavy industry layoffs machinery overall segments
If you look at the segments of the economy where we do have deflation, particularly in the goods industry -- and particularly in durable goods, such as automobiles and heavy machinery -- that's where most of the layoffs have been concentrated, ... That's where you see the connection of disinflation to overall economic growth.
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The underlying state of the economy is on weak footing, and we're going to need further stimulus to keep the recovery on track.
dramatic euro far line move recent tendency
The euro can go pretty far -- when currencies correct, they have a tendency to do that. But I don't see the recent move as dramatic or unexpected, and I don't think it's out of line with fundamentals.
guts statement
It's the same meat, but with a different gravy, ... The real guts of the Fed's statement is very much unchanged.