Lara Rhame
Lara Rhame
dollar euro everybody remain result spinning strength strong trends
Everybody is spinning it in their own direction, ... The end result is the same trends remain in place: dollar weakness, euro strength and the yen strong, but not so strong as the euro.
downward focusing growth initially markets revision seem
Markets initially seem to be focusing more on the downward revision in growth than the upward revision to the deflator.
concern future hiring job next robust shedding stopped
I don't see future hiring robust enough to alleviate a lot of concern on the part of consumers. We've stopped shedding jobs, but over the next two quarters, we won't see very much job growth.
investors keeps nightmare scenario
That's the nightmare that keeps a lot of investors up at night -- but I just don't think that scenario is realistic.
relative support
It erodes the relative interest-rate support for the dollar.
battered bounce early economy sector seeing troubles whether
The manufacturing sector has been so battered that it's too early to say the troubles are over in that sector. But we're seeing the economy making some kind of a bounce after contracting in April. We have to see now whether or not that continues.
businesses coming confidence lead level stocks throws
Stocks usually lead us out of a recession, but not this time. That throws in a whole new level of uncertainty about how businesses are going to behave. We don't know if there will be enough business confidence without stocks coming back.
benign energy inflation looking outside
Inflation is looking more benign outside of the energy sector.
deficit dollar exists gloom market punishing size
I think a lot of gloom still exists about the size of the deficit and the market is punishing the dollar for that.
building case consumer finally growth income seen slow slowing spending strong
The consumer is finally winding down. We've seen income growth slow somewhat, and we have enough headwinds building that we can make a strong case for spending slowing markedly.
context data declining difficult exactly fed last markets pressure price scared sees trend trying views
The markets are trying to put this data in the context of how scared the Fed is by it. It's very difficult to see exactly what the Fed views as a continuation of last year's trend of broadly declining price pressure and what the Fed sees as a substantial decline.
building case consumer finally growth income seen slow slowing spending strong
The consumer is finally winding down, ... We've seen income growth slow somewhat, and we have enough headwinds building that we can make a strong case for spending slowing markedly.
critical data dollar holiday income largely personal releases
The dollar is largely unchanged. In these holiday markets, I think releases like tomorrow's personal income data are going to be more critical than the backward-looking GDP report.
antidote fed five four next
For the Fed, productivity is the antidote to inflation, and that's still very strong. It's inconceivable that the Fed would tighten in four out of its next five meetings.