Lara Rhame
Lara Rhame
among consumers personally shut view
I personally am among those with the view that we actually are going to see consumers shut down.
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This is what the Federal Reserve has been warning about for a long time -- we will still see consumer spending growth, but it will be more moderate than before, ... It's a retrenchment of consumer spending growth from blistering levels.
consumers economic fuel growth optimistic positive
Consumers will keep us in positive territory, but they're not going to be optimistic enough to fuel economic growth to its potential.
cause consumer employment growth job shock shut situation spending
I think the employment situation is getting better, slowly, so I don't think it will cause the consumer to shut down, ... But job growth like this makes consumer spending that much more fragile, if some exogenous shock should hit.
continue favorable fed match raising rates scope support tends terms yield
I don't see the scope for the ECB to match the Fed in terms of raising rates and this will continue to support the dollar. The ECB tends to lag the Fed and even if they hike, the yield differentials are still favorable to the dollar.
cuts exactly fed help hitting makers market point policy putting rate short whatever yield
The market reacted exactly the way they wanted it to, which was to flatten the yield curve. I think the point is clear: Policy makers are going to do whatever they can to help the Fed. The rate cuts that the Fed is putting through are only hitting the short curve; they're only psychological.
dollar euro everybody remain result spinning strength strong trends
Everybody is spinning it in their own direction, ... The end result is the same trends remain in place: dollar weakness, euro strength and the yen strong, but not so strong as the euro.
downward focusing growth initially markets revision seem
Markets initially seem to be focusing more on the downward revision in growth than the upward revision to the deflator.
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This whole question of the impact on interest rates is really complicated, but a lot of smart people at the Fed and elsewhere have said it's not really a big issue -- it's only suppressing long-term interest rates at the margin.
businesses circular confidence consumers effect hiring lay lose nervous people production stop
There can be a circular effect -- if consumers lose confidence and businesses are nervous that the consumer will stop spending, and they downgrade production expectations or lay people off or stop hiring people because they don't think they'll get revenue, that makes consumers more nervous.
consumer factors fatigue goodness report severe special
This was an honest-to-goodness better-than-expected report. There were no special factors in it that made it look artificially strong. The report also indicates that consumer fatigue may not be as severe as we had previously thought.
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We had a massive jump in the Conference Board measure of consumer sentiment last month, and everybody will be looking for confirmation of that improvement in the Michigan survey.
behaves record seen surprise
We've never seen how this index behaves in a recovery; we've never seen it in anything but a downturn. It doesn't surprise me that we'd get record levels, now that manufacturing is recovering.
coming consumer employment numbers phenomenal resilience swayed
Yet again, the U.S. consumer has phenomenal resilience and is not being swayed by the employment numbers coming out.