Lara Rhame
Lara Rhame
apparel care case continue downward familiar housing medical pressure prices report
Today's report was a case of familiar culprits -- apparel prices continue to put downward pressure on inflation, and housing and medical care continue to put upward pressure on inflation.
across continue data dollar economic remains rising seen solid strong support treasury yield yields
U.S. treasury yields are rising and we've seen that support the dollar across the board. The dollar remains strong on the back of solid U.S. economic data and expectations that the 10-year yield is going to continue to go higher.
activity continued growth job means picking stay
With M&A activity picking up, productivity growth will stay robust, and that means continued new efficiencies, and a lot of that will overshadow new job creation.
both continue continuing data dollar fed headline increasing looks means price raise report rise solid supporting yields
The report was dollar positive. With the combination of solid data for the headline and what looks like increasing price pressure, that means you are going to see U.S. yields continue to rise and the Fed continuing to raise rates, both supporting the dollar.
continue favorable fed match raising rates scope support tends terms yield
I don't see the scope for the ECB to match the Fed in terms of raising rates and this will continue to support the dollar. The ECB tends to lag the Fed and even if they hike, the yield differentials are still favorable to the dollar.
actual continues domestic drawing economics economy-and-economics everybody fed final forecast hard learn market minus rate solid
Everybody has to learn a little more economics than they want to learn, now that we're drawing more and more of a distinction between actual GDP and final domestic demand, which is GDP minus inventories. Inventories can surprise. It's hard to make a solid forecast about them, and the Fed said that. I think the market continues to overestimate Fed rate cuts.
deficit dollar exists gloom market punishing size
I think a lot of gloom still exists about the size of the deficit and the market is punishing the dollar for that.
bottom call history shown simply soon tough
I think it's too soon to call for a bottom simply because history has shown us that with this currency, it's a tough bet.
claims combined data dollar focus modest morning trade
It is a modest dollar negative; the trade data combined with the claims data, but the focus this morning is very much on digesting the BOJ and on payrolls tomorrow.
board conference consumer everybody improvement jump last looking massive measure michigan sentiment
We had a massive jump in the Conference Board measure of consumer sentiment last month, and everybody will be looking for confirmation of that improvement in the Michigan survey.
asked hospital manager orders palm purchasing somebody
Look at the subcomponents -- what are inventories and new orders in this case? ... If I were the purchasing manager at a hospital and somebody asked me about 'new orders,' what would I count? Syringes? Patients? At a bank, what's 'inventory?' Palm Pilots? Mortgages?
downward focusing growth initially markets revision seem
Markets initially seem to be focusing more on the downward revision in growth than the upward revision to the deflator.
afford cut downside fed market markets pricing rate surprise
Market expectations have priced a rate cut in. When markets are pricing it in like that, the Fed can't afford to give a downside surprise in this environment.
relative support
It erodes the relative interest-rate support for the dollar.