Art Hogan
Art Hogan
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We spent the week worrying about yields and what the economic data would do. We managed to work our way through it. We finished off the week the best we could. Next week we have a host of economic data that may or may not change our mind. We'll see how it plays out.
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We're in that dreadful point in investor psyche where bad news is bad news and good news is bad news,
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We shouldn't get too far ahead of ourselves in terms of an economic recovery, ... I think the debate will become much more macro-economic instead of the micro focus we have had.
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The price of oil is acting as a natural drag on the U.S. economy and the global economy. It creates a great deal of investor uncertainty, ... as earnings reports start coming in, it's going to be what companies tell us about the next three quarters that determines if investors get off the sidelines.
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The price of oil will be the main driver this week, particularly since there is so little economic news.
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We've been able to handle a lackluster earnings season so far. Energy companies haven't really come into the fray yet, so things may look a little better after they report. Another positive is that we're backing off a bit from the high price of oil.
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We're getting an oversold bounce. Telecoms are getting a boost because of the AT&T Wireless (news), ... Investors are going to buy those tech stocks that we're not necessarily worried about.
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We have just digested so much news in the last week or so, ... Fourth-quarter earnings have been much better than expected, but you have people reluctant to make big bets ahead of things like the payroll report Friday, or the G7 meeting, which will be important for the dollar.
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We've got more ongoing focus on the bond yields. We've been in lockstep with it all week, and today is no different. There aren't any market-moving items due today, so we'll look at energy prices today for something else to drive the market.
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We set the mark kind of high with the Goldman Sachs' report, so we're not positive its brethren in the space can follow through and equally outperform.
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We've gone through a lot this week in terms of getting ready for the Fed, ... We've got some important news at 2:00 on Tuesday and obviously you're not going to make a huge bet in front of that. However, we seem to be in good shape for that announcement.
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We're seeing a nice handful of earnings today. That is going to be the driver. The other driver, or the thing that's not going to hold us back this quarter, and I would argue has held us back the last three quarters, is the consensus is the Fed is done for the year, ... We don't have a credit tightening cycle to go through and we're seeing terrific earnings. So I would argue that the focus returns now to earnings growth, revenue growth, the strength of corporate America and not necessarily the macro-economic themes like monetary policy which have been on the forefront for the last couple of quarters.
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We're seeing better earnings news in corporate America. That's what the market is celebrating, ... We made major collateral damage to stocks in the last six weeks and over a larger 2-1/2-year period. What's happening now is that the market is bottoming out and is building a higher support base in the process.
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We're starting to see that companies are starting to admit that the second half is going to be slow, so that's a lingering fear,