Art Hogan
Art Hogan
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We need a significant catalyst. Whether it be great second-quarter earnings or blowout economic data or some marquee firms coming out with a mid-second-quarter preview.
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I think we'll see the stock market trying to price that (rate cuts) in the second quarter.
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The global reaction to this is more of a psychological response than a rational one. People wake up and read whatever wire service they're going to read and realize that one of the major Asian markets was down by up to 6 percent overnight, and there are a number of tech earnings disappointments and it tends to cascade. Eventually you get a more rational response after people have time to come to terms with what is really happening.
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I think the fact that we had this awful bombing ... and yet the market seems to be moving on, that it's starting to become sort of priced into the marketplace. We may get investors to get back in off the sidelines at some juncture as we start to get earnings reports for the quarter.
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In terms of the thought process on the economy, today's ISM data on the services sector didn't help. It didn't really come as a surprise -- but, having said that, the broader thought process that the economy isn't doing well in the second half compared with the first half has investors concerned that we may need to test the lows of the market again.
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The way the markets have been trading this year,
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The markets are hanging on nicely, considering the massive gains yesterday, ... Clearly, if the market can hold onto its gains from yesterday, and through the weak durable goods report today, the path of least resistance is upside.
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I think this market can hold on to this rally and start trending higher.
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Concerns about higher interest rates and the yield on the 10-year note may keep stocks on the south side again this morning. The higher yield ... acts as a tax on corporations, and it may also attract money to the bond markets from equities.
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I think there's a lot of things going on, ... We had some good news from companies like Oracle, great economic data this morning, and you had the market clear two key psychological hurdles recently -- the Dow passing 10,000 and the capture of Saddam Hussein. All of that brings buyers back in for the short term.
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People are bid up the market by the close to get ahead of the Fed on the hope of a 'Fed bounce' tomorrow (Tuesday), ... We're still well within the time frame of the Fed's monetary policy stimulating the economy, but people are just tired of waiting for it.
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Cleary this had been a disappointing first half. But I would argue that long-term investors need this kind of an education to show them that markets don't go up forever.
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Not to be heartless, but this is very good for Wall Street, ... And I think that is why we are seeing this market take off in the early going.
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I think the market will continue to drift without any real direction until we get Friday's employment report and investors get a sense of the current economic outlook.