Art Hogan
Art Hogan
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We've seen some really good stuff and some really rough stuff, ... The market has worked its way through a bottom, at least on the Nasdaq and S&P. Money is rotating, so that means it's staying in the market and that's good news.
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We need a significant catalyst. Whether it be great second-quarter earnings or blowout economic data or some marquee firms coming out with a mid-second-quarter preview.
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This is not unlike the five percent to 10 percent correction a lot of people were calling for in the beginning of the year. You have an absence of corporate and economic news and clearly people are trying to rationalize valuations.
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The Fed said rates are going higher, which was no surprise, ... But when you're in an interest rate rising environment, all the smatterings of what would be considered good news look like a confirmation that rates will rise.
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I think this can sustain for the next day or two, at least until we get to all the earning and economic news in the second half of the week, ... Right now, the path of least resistance is still to the upside.
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It's a 'buy on the rumor, sell on the news' type of market, especially in the telecom and tech sectors,
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I don't think we can look forward to any great news coming out in the September-October period.
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I think there's a lot of things going on, ... We had some good news from companies like Oracle, great economic data this morning, and you had the market clear two key psychological hurdles recently -- the Dow passing 10,000 and the capture of Saddam Hussein. All of that brings buyers back in for the short term.
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The Fed said rates are going higher, which was no surprise. But when you're in an interest rate rising environment, all the smatterings of what would be considered good news look like a confirmation that rates will rise.
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I think we're going through this natural vacuum in the news cycle where we have a quiet economic calendar and the fourth-quarter earnings reports are slowing down. It's difficult to generate any interest in the market.
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The equities markets are very forward pricing mechanisms so the (corporate) news you're hearing has been priced into the market, for the most part. The news that you should focus on is what will be suggested in the commentary that comes out because we're trying to invest for fourth-quarter growth.
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This is more of a technically-driven rally. If the news is positive for the rest of the week, we should trend higher, but not enough to set any new record highs.
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You don't get a ton of people making huge bets ahead of the Fed meeting, ... There's little corporate news and no economic data, so I think you'll get some bargain hunters here.
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The market has been able to stomach a lot of bad news -- we've seen disasters every day and the market has trended higher, ... This is day four, so it's only natural to want to take profits.