Art Hogan
Art Hogan
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We need a significant catalyst. Whether it be great second-quarter earnings or blowout economic data or some marquee firms coming out with a mid-second-quarter preview.
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Historically, six to nine months after rate cuts, the economy stabilizes and starts to swing in the other direction, ... But a lot of things are different this time. The Fed came off an aggressive tightening mode, and there's a global economic slowdown. It's just going to take a while longer this time.
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This is not unlike the five percent to 10 percent correction a lot of people were calling for in the beginning of the year. You have an absence of corporate and economic news and clearly people are trying to rationalize valuations.
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I think this can sustain for the next day or two, at least until we get to all the earning and economic news in the second half of the week, ... Right now, the path of least resistance is still to the upside.
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It sends a signal that the U.S. economy has weathered some pretty harsh storms over the past few years and in recent months.
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(Greenspan's) a proponent of what productivity gains have brought to this new economy, ... Of all the things he says, the least hawkish is when he talks about productivity and the new economy. In terms of Wall Street's reaction, I wouldn't say we could garner anything but a positive feeling.
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I think there's a lot of things going on, ... We had some good news from companies like Oracle, great economic data this morning, and you had the market clear two key psychological hurdles recently -- the Dow passing 10,000 and the capture of Saddam Hussein. All of that brings buyers back in for the short term.
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My guess is we're going to have some positive action after last week's selling. We're in the last week of the month and the last week of a quarter, so there's some momentum there. If the stream of economic data is as positive as it's been, we're going to see some strength from that.
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I think the market will continue to drift without any real direction until we get Friday's employment report and investors get a sense of the current economic outlook.
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I think we're going through this natural vacuum in the news cycle where we have a quiet economic calendar and the fourth-quarter earnings reports are slowing down. It's difficult to generate any interest in the market.
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It didn't really come as a surprise -- but, having said that, the broader thought process that the economy isn't doing well in the second half compared with the first half has investors concerned that we may need to test the lows of the market again.
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It's a lagging number that will have two revisions. There were no major surprises. Economic data will still move this market, but this isn't one of them.
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You don't get a ton of people making huge bets ahead of the Fed meeting, ... There's little corporate news and no economic data, so I think you'll get some bargain hunters here.
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You can't have it both ways -- the economy can't be strong and have us worrying about revenue growth going forward, so it has to be the trend is slowing and how much that affects equity valuations going forward.