Art Hogan
Art Hogan
clearly effect equity exaggerate low strange summer tends vacation volumes
I think we're clearly in summer vacation mode, so we're going to have low volumes -- which has a strange effect on equity valuations and tends to exaggerate moves,
america equity flowing funds growth households invested keeps last market money mutual percent stock targeted toward
Fifty-two percent of the households in America are invested in the U.S. stock market and they want to invest in the things that had 70 percent growth last year, ... As long as the money keeps flowing into equity mutual funds and they are targeted toward Nasdaq stocks, we are going to see this go on for a while.
clearly equity forceful itself less light playing point rhetoric shows
They were less forceful in their rhetoric and that shows a little light at the end of the tunnel, ... Clearly they're at a point where what they say is more important than what they do and that's playing itself out in the equity markets.
basis cares consensus credible equity estimate fact fed five last march ourselves percentage points six talked trading tumultuous
I think 50 basis points (one-half percentage point) is a credible consensus estimate for what the Fed does (at its March 20 meeting). Unfortunately, over the last five or six tumultuous trading days, we've talked ourselves into the fact that the Fed cares about equity valuations, but that's not the case.
credit cycle equity markets ongoing piece slowing trend
It's another piece of the ongoing trend of a slowing economy, ... The credit tightening cycle is nearing an end and we have the equity markets celebrating that.
affects both economy economy-and-economics equity growth revenue slowing strong trend ways worrying
You can't have it both ways -- the economy can't be strong and have us worrying about revenue growth going forward, so it has to be the trend is slowing and how much that affects equity valuations going forward.
damage equity few forward happen happened market microsoft past pricing
The equity market is a very forward pricing mechanism, ... I think what's going to happen to Microsoft happened over the past few weeks. The damage has been priced in.
ahead fear fourth gotten hold negative ourselves
I think we got oversold, not on negative news, but on fear that we'd gotten ahead of ourselves and that things can't hold up in the fourth quarter,
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I think we're going through this natural vacuum in the news cycle where we have a quiet economic calendar and the fourth-quarter earnings reports are slowing down. It's difficult to generate any interest in the market.
investors later start
I think we'll start getting investors into the marketplace later in the first quarter,
market price second stock trying
I think we'll see the stock market trying to price that (rate cuts) in the second quarter.
options
I think we need to get through the options expiration tomorrow,
hold market rally start
I think this market can hold on to this rally and start trending higher.
earning economic half news next path resistance second sustain until
I think this can sustain for the next day or two, at least until we get to all the earning and economic news in the second half of the week, ... Right now, the path of least resistance is still to the upside.