Art Hogan
Art Hogan
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I think we're going through this natural vacuum in the news cycle where we have a quiet economic calendar and the fourth-quarter earnings reports are slowing down. It's difficult to generate any interest in the market.
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The price of oil is acting as a natural drag on the U.S. economy and the global economy. It creates a great deal of investor uncertainty, ... as earnings reports start coming in, it's going to be what companies tell us about the next three quarters that determines if investors get off the sidelines.
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This is definitely good news, ... Six out of the previous eight PPI reports have been higher than expected but the corresponding CPI reports have not. That means that we're not seeing the creeping effects of inflation passed on to the consumer.
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I think the fact that we had this awful bombing ... and yet the market seems to be moving on, that it's starting to become sort of priced into the marketplace. We may get investors to get back in off the sidelines at some juncture as we start to get earnings reports for the quarter.
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There's an unbelievable number of reports coming out, any number of which could move us one way or the other, ... If we have a blowup in the jobless claims, and it goes above 400,000, if the consumer sentiment number doesn't confirm today's consumer confidence number, you could see some selling.
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I think we got oversold, not on negative news, but on fear that we'd gotten ahead of ourselves and that things can't hold up in the fourth quarter,
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I think we're clearly in summer vacation mode, so we're going to have low volumes -- which has a strange effect on equity valuations and tends to exaggerate moves,
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I think we'll start getting investors into the marketplace later in the first quarter,
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I think we'll see the stock market trying to price that (rate cuts) in the second quarter.
options
I think we need to get through the options expiration tomorrow,
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I think this market can hold on to this rally and start trending higher.
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I think this can sustain for the next day or two, at least until we get to all the earning and economic news in the second half of the week, ... Right now, the path of least resistance is still to the upside.
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I think the semiconductors and the Nasdaq had sold off a little more than the rest of the market recently, so you're seeing them gain, ... But basically we're all waiting for everything that happens next week.
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I think there's a lot of things going on, ... We had some good news from companies like Oracle, great economic data this morning, and you had the market clear two key psychological hurdles recently -- the Dow passing 10,000 and the capture of Saddam Hussein. All of that brings buyers back in for the short term.