Art Hogan
Art Hogan
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We need a significant catalyst. Whether it be great second-quarter earnings or blowout economic data or some marquee firms coming out with a mid-second-quarter preview.
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The global reaction to this is more of a psychological response than a rational one. People wake up and read whatever wire service they're going to read and realize that one of the major Asian markets was down by up to 6 percent overnight, and there are a number of tech earnings disappointments and it tends to cascade. Eventually you get a more rational response after people have time to come to terms with what is really happening.
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I think the fact that we had this awful bombing ... and yet the market seems to be moving on, that it's starting to become sort of priced into the marketplace. We may get investors to get back in off the sidelines at some juncture as we start to get earnings reports for the quarter.
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The biggest fear is earnings going forward, ... All the consumer non-durable multinationals are going to have to warn about the ill effects of the strong dollar versus the weak euro, but that's cyclical.
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I think earnings season will be one of the catalysts to get money in off the sidelines and the other will be the Fed's ongoing ability to push down interest rates,
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I think we're going through this natural vacuum in the news cycle where we have a quiet economic calendar and the fourth-quarter earnings reports are slowing down. It's difficult to generate any interest in the market.
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If you've put together a wish list to buy stocks, there are some great bargains out there. The include quality names, those that remember to bring that top line revenues down the bottom line in the form of earnings -- that's going to be the key.
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In the earnings pre-reporting season, the companies that alarmed us so much were tech and telecom, ... We still have earnings jitters and nervousness about revenue growth. I think people feel there is more value in the Dow, which has been hanging in there, so that's where the flight to quality comes in.
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It's earnings pre-reporting season, ... I'm guessing that a lot of the worst is behind us is going to come out in commentary. Unfortunately it is going to follow numbers that are just as bad as the first quarter.
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I think that we just ran out of steam after a couple of hours. I am glad that we held on our gains from Friday. Oil will continue to be a driver, earnings will be a driver, and so will economics.
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The second quarter is lining up to be another good quarter but people are looking ahead to the third and fourth quarters. Barring any major upsets on the earnings calendar I'd say the market is pretty range bound.
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Just because Oracle is up and is optimistic about the future is not getting us excited about everything, ... Nobody's convinced there will be a rebound in the second half.
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It's an oversold bounce, ... After you get oversold, you have a reflex rally, and that's what we're seeing now.
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The increase in wages was the piece that really speaks to the inflationary pressure. The fear is that the Fed doesn't stop in March, that it continues through May. If corporate America's borrowing costs go up, that makes stocks less attractive.