Art Hogan
Art Hogan
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I think we're going through this natural vacuum in the news cycle where we have a quiet economic calendar and the fourth-quarter earnings reports are slowing down. It's difficult to generate any interest in the market.
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I think earnings season will be one of the catalysts to get money in off the sidelines and the other will be the Fed's ongoing ability to push down interest rates,
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Stay the course if you're a long-term investor. Don't buy stocks that don't have earnings - you need to be selective.
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With declines three days in a row, you know it must be earnings season,
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Unfortunately, everyone else is guilty by association with Procter missing (its earnings estimates), and everyone worries about who else in the Dow will miss, ... I think it's a clear sign of investors' overreaction.
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We should shrug this off and realize that this is the best fourth-quarter earnings we've seen in years,
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We're not getting a lot of companies that are doing cartwheels about the second half in terms of IT demand. In terms of where we stand, getting out of the second-quarter earnings reporting season, moving on with business as usual, is probably going to be a healthy thing.
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We're seeing better earnings news in corporate America. That's what the market is celebrating, ... We made major collateral damage to stocks in the last six weeks and over a larger 2-1/2-year period. What's happening now is that the market is bottoming out and is building a higher support base in the process.
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We're seeing a nice handful of earnings today. That is going to be the driver. The other driver, or the thing that's not going to hold us back this quarter, and I would argue has held us back the last three quarters, is the consensus is the Fed is done for the year, ... We don't have a credit tightening cycle to go through and we're seeing terrific earnings. So I would argue that the focus returns now to earnings growth, revenue growth, the strength of corporate America and not necessarily the macro-economic themes like monetary policy which have been on the forefront for the last couple of quarters.
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We have to get used to the fact that the emergency level of the fed funds rate is behind us, ... The sooner we become cognizant of the fact that the global economy won't be crushed and corporate earnings won't roll over, the sooner the market will fight its way to trend higher.
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We've been able to handle a lackluster earnings season so far. Energy companies haven't really come into the fray yet, so things may look a little better after they report. Another positive is that we're backing off a bit from the high price of oil.
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We have extremely large concerns about inflation, high interest rates and high energy prices, ... There is great concern that we don't know how much earnings growth will decelerate over the next two quarters.
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The price of oil is acting as a natural drag on the U.S. economy and the global economy. It creates a great deal of investor uncertainty, ... as earnings reports start coming in, it's going to be what companies tell us about the next three quarters that determines if investors get off the sidelines.
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We need a significant catalyst. Whether it be great second-quarter earnings or blowout economic data or some marquee firms coming out with a mid-second-quarter preview.