Art Hogan
Art Hogan
base building collateral corporate damage earnings happening higher larger last major market news seeing six stocks support weeks
We're seeing better earnings news in corporate America. That's what the market is celebrating, ... We made major collateral damage to stocks in the last six weeks and over a larger 2-1/2-year period. What's happening now is that the market is bottoming out and is building a higher support base in the process.
america argue consensus corporate couple credit cycle earnings fed focus forefront handful held hold last monetary nice policy returns revenue seeing strength terrific themes three
We're seeing a nice handful of earnings today. That is going to be the driver. The other driver, or the thing that's not going to hold us back this quarter, and I would argue has held us back the last three quarters, is the consensus is the Fed is done for the year, ... We don't have a credit tightening cycle to go through and we're seeing terrific earnings. So I would argue that the focus returns now to earnings growth, revenue growth, the strength of corporate America and not necessarily the macro-economic themes like monetary policy which have been on the forefront for the last couple of quarters.
bond drive due energy focus items ongoing prices today
We've got more ongoing focus on the bond yields. We've been in lockstep with it all week, and today is no different. There aren't any market-moving items due today, so we'll look at energy prices today for something else to drive the market.
behind corporate crushed earnings economy emergency fact fed fight funds global level market rate roll sooner trend
We have to get used to the fact that the emergency level of the fed funds rate is behind us, ... The sooner we become cognizant of the fact that the global economy won't be crushed and corporate earnings won't roll over, the sooner the market will fight its way to trend higher.
deal obviously
When you see a deal of this size, obviously (Washington Mutual) is still acquirable,
backing bit companies earnings energy handle high positive price season
We've been able to handle a lackluster earnings season so far. Energy companies haven't really come into the fray yet, so things may look a little better after they report. Another positive is that we're backing off a bit from the high price of oil.
great profit
I don't think it's anything other than profit taking. They really had a great two-week period.
concerned energy prices weeks
For two weeks we've been concerned about earnings, energy prices and the euro,
ahead economic four market months move tried
Historically, the market has tried to move four months ahead of an economic recovery.
aggressive came economic economy fed global longer months nine rate six starts swing
Historically, six to nine months after rate cuts, the economy stabilizes and starts to swing in the other direction, ... But a lot of things are different this time. The Fed came off an aggressive tightening mode, and there's a global economic slowdown. It's just going to take a while longer this time.
fed mean month pause rate
He's been very clear. The Fed may take a pause for a month or two, but that doesn't mean it's the end of the rate hikes.
norm volatility
But it's more of the same unfortunately. Volatility is going to be the norm not the exception.
across bar future guidance meet trouble
If they don't meet expectations, I think we're in trouble -- but I think the bar has been lowered across the board, ... It's more about the guidance and what they say about future quarters.
continue fed month pass slowing trend until wait
If we continue to see the trend slowing and we get better (economic) numbers, I think the Fed can take a pass at the end of the month and wait until August.