Art Hogan
Art Hogan
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We've seen some really good stuff and some really rough stuff, ... The market has worked its way through a bottom, at least on the Nasdaq and S&P. Money is rotating, so that means it's staying in the market and that's good news.
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We need a significant catalyst. Whether it be great second-quarter earnings or blowout economic data or some marquee firms coming out with a mid-second-quarter preview.
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The global reaction to this is more of a psychological response than a rational one. People wake up and read whatever wire service they're going to read and realize that one of the major Asian markets was down by up to 6 percent overnight, and there are a number of tech earnings disappointments and it tends to cascade. Eventually you get a more rational response after people have time to come to terms with what is really happening.
markets trading
The way the markets have been trading this year,
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The markets are hanging on nicely, considering the massive gains yesterday, ... Clearly, if the market can hold onto its gains from yesterday, and through the weak durable goods report today, the path of least resistance is upside.
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Concerns about higher interest rates and the yield on the 10-year note may keep stocks on the south side again this morning. The higher yield ... acts as a tax on corporations, and it may also attract money to the bond markets from equities.
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Cleary this had been a disappointing first half. But I would argue that long-term investors need this kind of an education to show them that markets don't go up forever.
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The equities markets are very forward pricing mechanisms so the (corporate) news you're hearing has been priced into the market, for the most part. The news that you should focus on is what will be suggested in the commentary that comes out because we're trying to invest for fourth-quarter growth.
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It's another piece of the ongoing trend of a slowing economy, ... The credit tightening cycle is nearing an end and we have the equity markets celebrating that.
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Just because Oracle is up and is optimistic about the future is not getting us excited about everything, ... Nobody's convinced there will be a rebound in the second half.
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It's an oversold bounce, ... After you get oversold, you have a reflex rally, and that's what we're seeing now.
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The increase in wages was the piece that really speaks to the inflationary pressure. The fear is that the Fed doesn't stop in March, that it continues through May. If corporate America's borrowing costs go up, that makes stocks less attractive.
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The Fed disappointed us short term, ... The economy looks better than it did in December and the Fed knows more than we do.
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It doesn't take much to push stocks lower in this market, ... Stocks have been headed in a downward direction for a while.