Art Hogan
Art Hogan
coming data earnings economic great marquee whether
We need a significant catalyst. Whether it be great second-quarter earnings or blowout economic data or some marquee firms coming out with a mid-second-quarter preview.
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I think this can sustain for the next day or two, at least until we get to all the earning and economic news in the second half of the week, ... Right now, the path of least resistance is still to the upside.
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The markets are hanging on nicely, considering the massive gains yesterday, ... Clearly, if the market can hold onto its gains from yesterday, and through the weak durable goods report today, the path of least resistance is upside.
continues moved news path perspective resistance upside
Microsoft's news was put into perspective as the day moved along. The path of least resistance continues to be to the upside for this market.
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Just because Oracle is up and is optimistic about the future is not getting us excited about everything, ... Nobody's convinced there will be a rebound in the second half.
reflex seeing
It's an oversold bounce, ... After you get oversold, you have a reflex rally, and that's what we're seeing now.
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The increase in wages was the piece that really speaks to the inflationary pressure. The fear is that the Fed doesn't stop in March, that it continues through May. If corporate America's borrowing costs go up, that makes stocks less attractive.
december economy fed knows looks short
The Fed disappointed us short term, ... The economy looks better than it did in December and the Fed knows more than we do.
direction downward headed lower push stocks
It doesn't take much to push stocks lower in this market, ... Stocks have been headed in a downward direction for a while.
fourth quarter signs
I think the fourth quarter is going to be great, ... We just don't have signs of it yet.
matter
Clearly, we will see stabilization. It's just a matter of when.
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I think we'll see the stock market trying to price that (rate cuts) in the second quarter.
cash catalyst deal great
The catalyst will be liquidity, ... There's a great deal of cash on the sidelines.
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Historically, six to nine months after rate cuts, the economy stabilizes and starts to swing in the other direction, ... But a lot of things are different this time. The Fed came off an aggressive tightening mode, and there's a global economic slowdown. It's just going to take a while longer this time.