Art Hogan
Art Hogan
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We need a significant catalyst. Whether it be great second-quarter earnings or blowout economic data or some marquee firms coming out with a mid-second-quarter preview.
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This is not unlike the five percent to 10 percent correction a lot of people were calling for in the beginning of the year. You have an absence of corporate and economic news and clearly people are trying to rationalize valuations.
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The global reaction to this is more of a psychological response than a rational one. People wake up and read whatever wire service they're going to read and realize that one of the major Asian markets was down by up to 6 percent overnight, and there are a number of tech earnings disappointments and it tends to cascade. Eventually you get a more rational response after people have time to come to terms with what is really happening.
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A lot of that rally had to do with the ISM (Institute for Supply Management) number, particularly the employment component, with people hoping that in turn, Friday's monthly report will show a higher number of payrolls than what people are expecting.
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It's not a major deal, ... Whatever bets have been made most of the day (dried up) ? people are just walking away and waiting until tomorrow.
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I think people are still not throwing money at everything that has a 'dot.com' on the end of it. I think slow and steady is going to win the race, especially if we have broad, selective and wiser investors.
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People are bid up the market by the close to get ahead of the Fed on the hope of a 'Fed bounce' tomorrow (Tuesday), ... We're still well within the time frame of the Fed's monetary policy stimulating the economy, but people are just tired of waiting for it.
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A lot of people assume that what's bad for Microsoft is bad for technology, and that's what's hurting the Nasdaq,
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Obviously, we are still concerned about how much the economy is slowing going forward. There are a lot of people who aren't making bets on this marketplace.
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You don't get a ton of people making huge bets ahead of the Fed meeting, ... There's little corporate news and no economic data, so I think you'll get some bargain hunters here.
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In the earnings pre-reporting season, the companies that alarmed us so much were tech and telecom, ... We still have earnings jitters and nervousness about revenue growth. I think people feel there is more value in the Dow, which has been hanging in there, so that's where the flight to quality comes in.
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Next week we really kick that (warnings) season off. There's going to be more Gateways out there, and that's not going to help. People will make the argument that a lot of that bad news has been priced into the market already, but it certainly wasn't yesterday.
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The second quarter is lining up to be another good quarter but people are looking ahead to the third and fourth quarters. Barring any major upsets on the earnings calendar I'd say the market is pretty range bound.
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Just because Oracle is up and is optimistic about the future is not getting us excited about everything, ... Nobody's convinced there will be a rebound in the second half.