Art Hogan
Art Hogan
good market means money rough seen staying stuff worked
We've seen some really good stuff and some really rough stuff, ... The market has worked its way through a bottom, at least on the Nasdaq and S&P. Money is rotating, so that means it's staying in the market and that's good news.
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We need a significant catalyst. Whether it be great second-quarter earnings or blowout economic data or some marquee firms coming out with a mid-second-quarter preview.
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I think the fact that we had this awful bombing ... and yet the market seems to be moving on, that it's starting to become sort of priced into the marketplace. We may get investors to get back in off the sidelines at some juncture as we start to get earnings reports for the quarter.
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A lot of that rally had to do with the ISM (Institute for Supply Management) number, particularly the employment component, with people hoping that in turn, Friday's monthly report will show a higher number of payrolls than what people are expecting.
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The markets are hanging on nicely, considering the massive gains yesterday, ... Clearly, if the market can hold onto its gains from yesterday, and through the weak durable goods report today, the path of least resistance is upside.
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I think the market will continue to drift without any real direction until we get Friday's employment report and investors get a sense of the current economic outlook.
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This is definitely good news, ... Six out of the previous eight PPI reports have been higher than expected but the corresponding CPI reports have not. That means that we're not seeing the creeping effects of inflation passed on to the consumer.
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I think we're going through this natural vacuum in the news cycle where we have a quiet economic calendar and the fourth-quarter earnings reports are slowing down. It's difficult to generate any interest in the market.
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This may be a very volatile trading session. The market wants good numbers, but an exceedingly good report may lead to further rates increases, and that's not good for stocks. On the other hand, a bad report on top of disappointing earnings, could spark another sell-off.
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Just because Oracle is up and is optimistic about the future is not getting us excited about everything, ... Nobody's convinced there will be a rebound in the second half.
reflex seeing
It's an oversold bounce, ... After you get oversold, you have a reflex rally, and that's what we're seeing now.
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The increase in wages was the piece that really speaks to the inflationary pressure. The fear is that the Fed doesn't stop in March, that it continues through May. If corporate America's borrowing costs go up, that makes stocks less attractive.
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The Fed disappointed us short term, ... The economy looks better than it did in December and the Fed knows more than we do.
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It doesn't take much to push stocks lower in this market, ... Stocks have been headed in a downward direction for a while.