Ethan Harris
Ethan Harris
applying believe labor number people sure
I'm not sure I believe the Labor Department. On Friday, there must have been a below-normal number of people applying for benefits.
action dangerous early fed fragile hiking initial interest stage thinking
It's much too early for the Fed to be thinking about hiking interest rates. It would be a very dangerous action on their part in this fragile initial stage of the recovery.
friendly inflation major signals warning
It's not as friendly as some of the other inflation numbers, but it's just one indicator. We have no inflation warning signals from any of the other major inflation indicators.
erosion explosion question sudden
It's not a question of a sudden explosion in prices. It's more an erosion of the low-inflation psychology.
average bills bulk burden confidence consumer cut debt driver growth leaving less past paying people picking several slow taken tax truth wage
Everyone is all zeroed in on the consumer now, but the truth is that the consumer isn't the driver now. Confidence is picking up, but still at average levels. Wage growth is slow and the bulk of the tax cut is already in place. Finally, with all the debt people have taken out over the past several years the burden of paying monthly bills is leaving less for discretionary spending.
against central err feeling restraint side
Our feeling is that because you have a new central banker, they are going to want to err on the side of restraint against inflation.
both giving household payroll quarter rule survey thumb weight
My rule of thumb is to look at both the household and payroll surveys together, giving three-quarters weight to the payroll survey and one quarter to the household survey.