Ethan Harris
Ethan Harris
corporate force growth holding line matter profit profits recent seen slow stay work workers
I think we know corporate profit growth can't stay at the rate we've seen in recent quarters. They (employers) have been squeezing the work force pretty aggressively, squeezing productivity out of workers and holding the line on wages. It's a matter of how much corporate profits slow down.
cases companies cutting growth hours looking numbers obviously payroll people reflect slower workers workforce
We are obviously experiencing slower growth and the payroll numbers don't really reflect that yet, which is why they will be an important indicator. Companies have been cutting back the number of hours their workers put in and in some cases cutting back their workforce altogether, and that is what people will be looking for in the numbers.
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With few signs that consumer prices are about to break to the upside ... along with signs that aggregate demand remains robust, we expect the Fed will not only vote to keep rates constant, but will leave the growth and inflation bias statements unchanged.
coming growth next wage
We are going to get some follow-through, some hiring, but it will be slow. I don't see wage growth coming back in the next year.
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Only with very weak U.S. growth or a major drop in the U.S. dollar will the trade deficit improve on a sustained basis. The reason you need these dramatic movements is that the U.S. has, according to almost every study, an incredible appetite for imports.
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We needed 20 percent economic growth in the third quarter to get rid of all of the excess capacity in the economy. The Fed is still going to be concerned about disinflation.
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The surplus creates an environment where there's a tremendous amount of saving being freed up for private investment every time the government pays down its debt, that frees funds to flow into private investments. That has created this strong growth economy that we have.
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Real estate is a topic that has vaulted to center stage, ... The real reason the topic is hot and belongs on the front page of research reports is that the housing market is becoming more of an engine of economic growth, but is also the biggest risk to future growth if the boom goes bust.
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The national economy usually weathers these storms with relatively minor damage. Second, the hurricane is a 'supply shock' -- a disruption to productive potential -- not a 'demand shock.' The same factors that threaten growth -- higher commodity prices, shipping bottlenecks, reduced local productive capacity -- also threaten inflation.
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This is a feel-good report. When you get a strong growth number and a low inflation number, it's hard to get a better combination than that for the economy.
growth percent
A lot of things have to go right even to get 2.3 percent growth for the year,
clearly consumer economy growth operating percent recovery talking
You're not talking about a full-blown business-cycle recovery here, which is something like 6 percent GDP growth for a year. To get that, you'll need the whole economy operating in full-growth mode, and clearly the consumer isn't.
bottom continued cost discipline flow growth spent wage
You're going to see continued cost discipline. So when growth comes it won't be spent on things like wage increases, but will flow to the bottom line.
economy engines face growth healthy housing sector
This is a sector that should be one of the engines of growth and should keep the economy healthy in the face of the weakening housing market.