Ethan Harris
Ethan Harris
asian banks central current dollar downward helping investors large low market pile pressure prop relative shy start support trading treasury yields
This large inflow is an important prop for the Treasury market, helping keep yields in their current low trading range. Not only is the inflow large relative to new Treasury supply, it may also help stabilize the market when it comes under pressure. If investors start to shy away from the U.S. market, the dollar comes under downward pressure and the Asian central banks pile in to support the U.S. market.
data dictate economy further gradual inflation markets risks step stop strong towards
It is gradual step towards a little more flexibility. Inflation, the economy and the markets will dictate how much further they go. They say the economy is strong and that inflation risks are tilted a little to the upside. There is nothing yet in the data that will stop the Fed.
cost economists economy faster housing income indicator market mortgage picks possibly predict quickly ratio slowly typical
The indicator that economists use to predict the housing market is the affordability index -- the ratio of monthly income to monthly mortgage payments. As the economy picks up, the typical family's monthly income will slowly accelerate, but the monthly mortgage cost is quickly jumping, much faster than income could possibly move.
adjustment leak market slow
The market has some adjustment to do, but it will be more of a slow leak than a pop.
ahead bit data fed given holding looking markets meeting rather reacting sort toward uncertain verdict waiting
The markets are going to be a bit uncertain as to how to react, given that the Fed is waiting in the wings. They are all going to be looking ahead toward the FOMC meeting to see what the Fed's verdict is on the data rather than reacting as it comes out. They'll be sort of holding their breath.
bond chronic economic global market potent risk
There's a chronic risk to the bond market from global economic recovery. Probably the most potent story is Japan.
becoming belongs biggest boom center economic engine estate front future goes growth hot housing market page reason reports research risk topic
Real estate is a topic that has vaulted to center stage, ... The real reason the topic is hot and belongs on the front page of research reports is that the housing market is becoming more of an engine of economic growth, but is also the biggest risk to future growth if the boom goes bust.
kid market toy
The market is kind of like a four-year old kid in a toy store,
adding board financial governors initially markets monetary players policy terms
They're adding to the intellectual firepower of the board of governors in terms of regulatory and financial markets issues, but initially they won't be important players in the monetary policy front.
disaster forgotten lessons markets natural prior
The markets have forgotten two lessons from prior natural disasters.
fed market
If the Fed isn't happy, the market isn't happy.
bond looking market relief report
The bond market went into this report looking for disaster. I think there's a sense of relief in the bond market.
lined
This is one of the very-easy-to-interpret reports. In this one, everything lined up like the planets.
concern people voting
They're voting with their wallets and they're spending. There's always a concern that people just don't like what they're seeing, but they are still buying.