Ethan Harris
Ethan Harris
employment hints number strong
This is another of these little hints that we won't get a strong employment number on Friday.
declaring doctor equivalent fed forcing full hike hospital patient rates run
For the Fed to hike rates now would be the equivalent of a doctor prematurely declaring a patient at full health, discharging them from the hospital and then forcing them to run a mile.
ahead bit data fed given holding looking markets meeting rather reacting sort toward uncertain verdict waiting
The markets are going to be a bit uncertain as to how to react, given that the Fed is waiting in the wings. They are all going to be looking ahead toward the FOMC meeting to see what the Fed's verdict is on the data rather than reacting as it comes out. They'll be sort of holding their breath.
announced endgame monetary
The Fed's announced an endgame for monetary policy.
bond chronic economic global market potent risk
There's a chronic risk to the bond market from global economic recovery. Probably the most potent story is Japan.
costs financing house
You want to get your house in place before financing costs go up.
best economic pickup profits quarter spot sweet terms third
The third quarter was the sweet spot for profits from an economic perspective. You had this pickup in growth, but you didn't have the pickup in costs. In terms of growth, this is the best quarter we're going to see.
moved people realize step terror wake war
People will wake up and realize the war on terror has just moved one step forward,
companies less paying
Companies are paying more compensation and getting less productivity growth.
companies company cut economy harder hours job laying natural number people per pull quickly reduce
The one thing that companies can do quickly without laying people off is reduce the number of hours per week; as the economy slows, that's the natural place for a company to cut back. It's a little harder to pull back quickly on job hiring.
companies fewer finding growth incredible maintain technology ways
Companies have been able to maintain incredible productivity growth for a low-growth economy. It does look like firms are finding ways to use technology and make do with fewer workers.
claims continued people rate sign work
These continued claims are a sign the unemployment rate is still on an upward trajectory. There are still a lot of people out of work out there.
economy event ugly
The economy is one ugly event away from contraction.
anywhere believe capital catalyst point recovery spending
As you look down the road, at some point you've got to believe there's a real recovery in capital spending on the way. But I don't see the catalyst anywhere in sight.