Ethan Harris
Ethan Harris
concern people voting
They're voting with their wallets and they're spending. There's always a concern that people just don't like what they're seeing, but they are still buying.
balance happening improvement moves people radical talk trade
This is why people talk about radical moves down in the dollar. They just can't see an improvement of the trade balance happening any other way.
almost changed commentary fed identical officials people prior sound
I think what people will see is that commentary from Fed officials will sound almost identical to their commentary prior to this meeting. Nothing's really changed at the Fed.
applying believe labor number people sure
I'm not sure I believe the Labor Department. On Friday, there must have been a below-normal number of people applying for benefits.
affect consume demand economy-and-economics effect electrical industrial natural obvious output people places utility
But the obvious effect is on utility consumption, which will affect industrial output in the economy. People consume more electricity, that places more demand on natural gas, coal, power, and electrical systems.
moved people realize step terror wake war
People will wake up and realize the war on terror has just moved one step forward,
companies company cut economy harder hours job laying natural number people per pull quickly reduce
The one thing that companies can do quickly without laying people off is reduce the number of hours per week; as the economy slows, that's the natural place for a company to cut back. It's a little harder to pull back quickly on job hiring.
claims continued people rate sign work
These continued claims are a sign the unemployment rate is still on an upward trajectory. There are still a lot of people out of work out there.
gasoline jump large looks number obviously people price public rate rise rose street tendency visible wall
You've had obviously a rise in gasoline prices, which is the visible price in the economy, ... There's (also) a tendency of the public to look at the unemployment rate that actually rose in March, while Wall Street looks at payrolls (which showed a large jump in the number of people working.)
concern discount negative news noticeable people quickly reading
A negative reading would be a noticeable headline. Some people will quickly discount it, say it's old news, but it could reawaken concern about the economy.
lined
This is one of the very-easy-to-interpret reports. In this one, everything lined up like the planets.
almost convince inflation last straw
I think that (high inflation readings) would be almost the last straw to convince the Fed.
challenger device healthy number telling useful
Even in a healthy economy, you have layoffs, ... The Challenger number is more useful as a story telling device than an indicator.
corporate force growth holding line matter profit profits recent seen slow stay work workers
I think we know corporate profit growth can't stay at the rate we've seen in recent quarters. They (employers) have been squeezing the work force pretty aggressively, squeezing productivity out of workers and holding the line on wages. It's a matter of how much corporate profits slow down.