Ethan Harris
Ethan Harris
almost changed commentary fed identical officials people prior sound
I think what people will see is that commentary from Fed officials will sound almost identical to their commentary prior to this meeting. Nothing's really changed at the Fed.
according almost appetite deficit dollar dramatic drop growth improve incredible major movements reason sustained trade weak
Only with very weak U.S. growth or a major drop in the U.S. dollar will the trade deficit improve on a sustained basis. The reason you need these dramatic movements is that the U.S. has, according to almost every study, an incredible appetite for imports.
almost convince inflation last straw
I think that (high inflation readings) would be almost the last straw to convince the Fed.
ahead almost consumer continue effects energy pressure slow somewhat spending vulnerable year
The consumer is already somewhat vulnerable in the year ahead as the tax-cut effects fade. If we continue to see pressure from energy prices, consumer spending is almost sure to slow down some.
corporate force growth holding line matter profit profits recent seen slow stay work workers
I think we know corporate profit growth can't stay at the rate we've seen in recent quarters. They (employers) have been squeezing the work force pretty aggressively, squeezing productivity out of workers and holding the line on wages. It's a matter of how much corporate profits slow down.
adds case cautious demanding generally higher investors returns risk taking view
It generally just adds to the case for investors taking a little more cautious view on risk and demanding higher returns on investments.
adjusted bring consumer impact rates rising slowing spending tremendous
Rising rates could have a tremendous impact on slowing consumer spending. Consumer spending has been about 6 percent, when adjusted for inflation. Rising rates could bring it down to 2 or 3 percent.
chairman proving whoever
Whoever is chosen, the new chairman will go through a proving period.
benefits lower tax
That basically, in my mind, cancels out the benefits of the lower tax rates,
automatic bunch chairman democratic discussion greenspan less normal respect turn
When you get a new chairman in place you're going to have a more democratic and less predictable, less transparent Fed. The new chairman won't get the same automatic respect Greenspan has. It's not that (central bankers) will turn into a bunch of farm-yard animals, but there will be a more normal discussion going on.
data domestic gross number pieces quarter sector services worst
We think the ISM services number is one of the worst monthly pieces of data there are. On a month-to-month basis, it has no correlation with service sector employment, and on a quarter to quarter basis, it has no correlation with service sector gross domestic product.
cases companies cutting growth hours looking numbers obviously payroll people reflect slower workers workforce
We are obviously experiencing slower growth and the payroll numbers don't really reflect that yet, which is why they will be an important indicator. Companies have been cutting back the number of hours their workers put in and in some cases cutting back their workforce altogether, and that is what people will be looking for in the numbers.
federal government limited natural role takes
Usually the federal government takes a much more limited role in natural disasters.
economy keeps major recession war
We're not going to be in a recession if the economy reverses quickly. But if the war keeps going on, recession is a major risk.