Ethan Harris
Ethan Harris
adds case cautious demanding generally higher investors returns risk taking view
It generally just adds to the case for investors taking a little more cautious view on risk and demanding higher returns on investments.
capacity commodity disruption economy economy-and-economics factors growth higher hurricane local minor national potential productive reduced relatively shipping storms threaten
The national economy usually weathers these storms with relatively minor damage. Second, the hurricane is a 'supply shock' -- a disruption to productive potential -- not a 'demand shock.' The same factors that threaten growth -- higher commodity prices, shipping bottlenecks, reduced local productive capacity -- also threaten inflation.
alone consumer damaged higher oil people prices shocks tax worrying
In the big oil shocks that really damaged the economy, the tax on the consumer was many times more than that, but that alone wasn't enough. You also had to have people worrying that prices were going higher forever.
adjustment economy effect fairly higher oil prices problem style top
The adjustment to higher prices has been fairly orderly. It's not a 70's style shock. Oil prices do have an effect on the economy but it's not dramatic. It's a problem but not at the top of the list.
approach cautious consumer fed handle higher interest medicine nurtured patient recovery shock worried
The Fed is going to take a cautious approach (because) they're worried about how the consumer will handle higher interest rates, ... We've had recovery nurtured on super-low interest rates. They don't want to shock the patient by withdrawing the medicine too quickly.
corporate force growth holding line matter profit profits recent seen slow stay work workers
I think we know corporate profit growth can't stay at the rate we've seen in recent quarters. They (employers) have been squeezing the work force pretty aggressively, squeezing productivity out of workers and holding the line on wages. It's a matter of how much corporate profits slow down.
almost changed commentary fed identical officials people prior sound
I think what people will see is that commentary from Fed officials will sound almost identical to their commentary prior to this meeting. Nothing's really changed at the Fed.
adjusted bring consumer impact rates rising slowing spending tremendous
Rising rates could have a tremendous impact on slowing consumer spending. Consumer spending has been about 6 percent, when adjusted for inflation. Rising rates could bring it down to 2 or 3 percent.
chairman proving whoever
Whoever is chosen, the new chairman will go through a proving period.
benefits lower tax
That basically, in my mind, cancels out the benefits of the lower tax rates,
automatic bunch chairman democratic discussion greenspan less normal respect turn
When you get a new chairman in place you're going to have a more democratic and less predictable, less transparent Fed. The new chairman won't get the same automatic respect Greenspan has. It's not that (central bankers) will turn into a bunch of farm-yard animals, but there will be a more normal discussion going on.
data domestic gross number pieces quarter sector services worst
We think the ISM services number is one of the worst monthly pieces of data there are. On a month-to-month basis, it has no correlation with service sector employment, and on a quarter to quarter basis, it has no correlation with service sector gross domestic product.
cases companies cutting growth hours looking numbers obviously payroll people reflect slower workers workforce
We are obviously experiencing slower growth and the payroll numbers don't really reflect that yet, which is why they will be an important indicator. Companies have been cutting back the number of hours their workers put in and in some cases cutting back their workforce altogether, and that is what people will be looking for in the numbers.
federal government limited natural role takes
Usually the federal government takes a much more limited role in natural disasters.