Ethan Harris
Ethan Harris
assuming bond fed gets hikes market pulled
What we're assuming is that as the Fed hikes rates, the bond market gets pulled along.
capacity concerned economic excess fed growth needed percent quarter rid third
We needed 20 percent economic growth in the third quarter to get rid of all of the excess capacity in the economy. The Fed is still going to be concerned about disinflation.
best confidence corporate economy evidence gaining looking news side
What we're looking for is evidence of the corporate side of the economy gaining confidence and making real commitments in its own spending. There, I'd say the news is at best mixed,
across auto collapse component growth incentives knew major months number rest row sales single stop weak
We knew we would have a very weak number because of a collapse in auto sales after two big months in a row and the incentives kind of stop working ... But if you look at the rest of the report, every single major component was up. It was very broad-based growth across many components.
benefits consumers economic job labor market reasons recovery spend sustain
Ultimately, for the economic recovery to sustain itself, we have to see the labor market improve. As the tax-cut benefits fade, consumers will look for more fundamental reasons to spend money, and there will have to be some job growth.
below model point reached trust
We reached the point where we don't trust our model anymore. That's why we were below the consensus.
arguing fed growth inflation rising speakers string
The combination of still-strong growth and rising inflation has prompted a string of hawkish Fed speakers all arguing strenuously for the need to keep inflation contained,