Ethan Harris
Ethan Harris
delays housing impact might prices tend turn whatever
Housing prices tend to turn very slowly, and that delays whatever impact they might have on the economy.
cautious everybody line locked optimism risks
The Fed's kind of locked into this cautious optimism mode. Everybody there has the same line about how once geopolitical risks abate things will get better.
economy knew obviously revise weak
Obviously we have a pretty weak economy and this was not unexpected. We knew they were going to have to revise it downward.
economic economy hold hope looking month resolved stage war
Are the economic indicators looking like a recession? Absolutely. But you can still hold out hope that the war is resolved in a month or so and the economy can stage some kind of recovery.
entering uncertain
Now you are entering a much more uncertain period.
asian banks central current dollar downward helping investors large low market pile pressure prop relative shy start support trading treasury yields
This large inflow is an important prop for the Treasury market, helping keep yields in their current low trading range. Not only is the inflow large relative to new Treasury supply, it may also help stabilize the market when it comes under pressure. If investors start to shy away from the U.S. market, the dollar comes under downward pressure and the Asian central banks pile in to support the U.S. market.
lined
This is one of the very-easy-to-interpret reports. In this one, everything lined up like the planets.
concern people voting
They're voting with their wallets and they're spending. There's always a concern that people just don't like what they're seeing, but they are still buying.
almost convince inflation last straw
I think that (high inflation readings) would be almost the last straw to convince the Fed.
challenger device healthy number telling useful
Even in a healthy economy, you have layoffs, ... The Challenger number is more useful as a story telling device than an indicator.
aggregate along bias break consumer demand expect fed few growth inflation leave prices rates remains signs statements upside vote
With few signs that consumer prices are about to break to the upside ... along with signs that aggregate demand remains robust, we expect the Fed will not only vote to keep rates constant, but will leave the growth and inflation bias statements unchanged.
coming growth next wage
We are going to get some follow-through, some hiring, but it will be slow. I don't see wage growth coming back in the next year.
below model point reached trust
We reached the point where we don't trust our model anymore. That's why we were below the consensus.
benign inflation remain
We think inflation is going to remain benign going forward.