Ethan Harris
Ethan Harris
asked definitely event wife work
There's definitely going to be nervousness around the event and a kind of inertia. My wife has already asked me not to come into work that day.
becoming belongs biggest boom center economic engine estate front future goes growth hot housing market page reason reports research risk topic
Real estate is a topic that has vaulted to center stage, ... The real reason the topic is hot and belongs on the front page of research reports is that the housing market is becoming more of an engine of economic growth, but is also the biggest risk to future growth if the boom goes bust.
capacity commodity disruption economy economy-and-economics factors growth higher hurricane local minor national potential productive reduced relatively shipping storms threaten
The national economy usually weathers these storms with relatively minor damage. Second, the hurricane is a 'supply shock' -- a disruption to productive potential -- not a 'demand shock.' The same factors that threaten growth -- higher commodity prices, shipping bottlenecks, reduced local productive capacity -- also threaten inflation.
bit both calling china deficit pointing policy poor pot reflects sides
The U.S. pointing to China is a bit like the pot calling the kettle black. The deficit with China reflects poor policy on both sides of the Pacific.
agree attention chairman comments gap itself last might number raised reserve smaller start trade week
The number itself wasn't very surprising, ... (Federal Reserve Chairman Alan) Greenspan's comments last week that the trade gap might start getting smaller raised attention and some hopes. But I didn't agree with him about that.
economy engines face growth healthy housing sector
This is a sector that should be one of the engines of growth and should keep the economy healthy in the face of the weakening housing market.
data economists feeling good strength until weight
Some economists give a lot of weight to these surveys, but my feeling is that a survey's only good until the real data come out. The surveys are exaggerating the strength of the manufacturing sector.
fed looking looks percent quarter since subtract twice
You probably want to subtract about two-tenths of a percent from first-quarter GDP growth. But that's looking like very old history, with the Fed having eased twice since the first quarter. From the market's perspective, you feel like you're in a different world already. The first quarter looks very distant, indeed.
apparently monetary policy shock taken value
Apparently the Fed's new policy of 'transparency' has taken the shock value out of monetary policy.
adds learn rookie
This kind of adds to the sense of a rookie in the institution. They are going to have to learn the ropes for a while before they are going to be influential.
kid market toy
The market is kind of like a four-year old kid in a toy store,
clean hurricane talking
This is a nice, clean post-Katrina read. You wouldn't know there'd been a hurricane by the way they're talking about the economy,
bush great nobody treasury
Rubin was a great Treasury Secretary. Nobody in the Bush administration comes close.
ahead almost consumer continue effects energy pressure slow somewhat spending vulnerable year
The consumer is already somewhat vulnerable in the year ahead as the tax-cut effects fade. If we continue to see pressure from energy prices, consumer spending is almost sure to slow down some.