Ethan Harris
Ethan Harris
gasoline jump large looks number obviously people price public rate rise rose street tendency visible wall
You've had obviously a rise in gasoline prices, which is the visible price in the economy, ... There's (also) a tendency of the public to look at the unemployment rate that actually rose in March, while Wall Street looks at payrolls (which showed a large jump in the number of people working.)
clearly consumer economy growth operating percent recovery talking
You're not talking about a full-blown business-cycle recovery here, which is something like 6 percent GDP growth for a year. To get that, you'll need the whole economy operating in full-growth mode, and clearly the consumer isn't.
bottom continued cost discipline flow growth spent wage
You're going to see continued cost discipline. So when growth comes it won't be spent on things like wage increases, but will flow to the bottom line.
fed looking looks percent quarter since subtract twice
You probably want to subtract about two-tenths of a percent from first-quarter GDP growth. But that's looking like very old history, with the Fed having eased twice since the first quarter. From the market's perspective, you feel like you're in a different world already. The first quarter looks very distant, indeed.
economy engines face growth healthy housing sector
This is a sector that should be one of the engines of growth and should keep the economy healthy in the face of the weakening housing market.
clean hurricane talking
This is a nice, clean post-Katrina read. You wouldn't know there'd been a hurricane by the way they're talking about the economy,
employment hints number strong
This is another of these little hints that we won't get a strong employment number on Friday.
lined
This is one of the very-easy-to-interpret reports. In this one, everything lined up like the planets.
bit both calling china deficit pointing policy poor pot reflects sides
The U.S. pointing to China is a bit like the pot calling the kettle black. The deficit with China reflects poor policy on both sides of the Pacific.
data economists feeling good strength until weight
Some economists give a lot of weight to these surveys, but my feeling is that a survey's only good until the real data come out. The surveys are exaggerating the strength of the manufacturing sector.
companies fewer finding growth incredible maintain technology ways
Companies have been able to maintain incredible productivity growth for a low-growth economy. It does look like firms are finding ways to use technology and make do with fewer workers.
companies less paying
Companies are paying more compensation and getting less productivity growth.
concern discount negative news noticeable people quickly reading
A negative reading would be a noticeable headline. Some people will quickly discount it, say it's old news, but it could reawaken concern about the economy.
economic economy hold hope looking month resolved stage war
Are the economic indicators looking like a recession? Absolutely. But you can still hold out hope that the war is resolved in a month or so and the economy can stage some kind of recovery.