Ethan Harris
Ethan Harris
aggregate along bias break consumer demand expect fed few growth inflation leave prices rates remains signs statements upside vote
With few signs that consumer prices are about to break to the upside ... along with signs that aggregate demand remains robust, we expect the Fed will not only vote to keep rates constant, but will leave the growth and inflation bias statements unchanged.
automatic bunch chairman democratic discussion greenspan less normal respect turn
When you get a new chairman in place you're going to have a more democratic and less predictable, less transparent Fed. The new chairman won't get the same automatic respect Greenspan has. It's not that (central bankers) will turn into a bunch of farm-yard animals, but there will be a more normal discussion going on.
coming growth next wage
We are going to get some follow-through, some hiring, but it will be slow. I don't see wage growth coming back in the next year.
below model point reached trust
We reached the point where we don't trust our model anymore. That's why we were below the consensus.
benign inflation remain
We think inflation is going to remain benign going forward.
background both bush business economic fed history itself list people pick seem
There is a history both in appointments under the Bush administration and the Fed chairmanship itself of people off the list being picked. Bush does seem to have a proclivity to pick people with a more business background for his economic positions.
assuming bond fed gets hikes market pulled
What we're assuming is that as the Fed hikes rates, the bond market gets pulled along.
best confidence corporate economy evidence gaining looking news side
What we're looking for is evidence of the corporate side of the economy gaining confidence and making real commitments in its own spending. There, I'd say the news is at best mixed,
across auto collapse component growth incentives knew major months number rest row sales single stop weak
We knew we would have a very weak number because of a collapse in auto sales after two big months in a row and the incentives kind of stop working ... But if you look at the rest of the report, every single major component was up. It was very broad-based growth across many components.
benefits consumers economic job labor market reasons recovery spend sustain
Ultimately, for the economic recovery to sustain itself, we have to see the labor market improve. As the tax-cut benefits fade, consumers will look for more fundamental reasons to spend money, and there will have to be some job growth.
capacity concerned economic excess fed growth needed percent quarter rid third
We needed 20 percent economic growth in the third quarter to get rid of all of the excess capacity in the economy. The Fed is still going to be concerned about disinflation.