Ethan Harris
Ethan Harris
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Are the economic indicators looking like a recession? Absolutely. But you can still hold out hope that the war is resolved in a month or so and the economy can stage some kind of recovery.
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But the obvious effect is on utility consumption, which will affect industrial output in the economy. People consume more electricity, that places more demand on natural gas, coal, power, and electrical systems.
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There's a chronic risk to the bond market from global economic recovery. Probably the most potent story is Japan.
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The third quarter was the sweet spot for profits from an economic perspective. You had this pickup in growth, but you didn't have the pickup in costs. In terms of growth, this is the best quarter we're going to see.
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Real estate is a topic that has vaulted to center stage, ... The real reason the topic is hot and belongs on the front page of research reports is that the housing market is becoming more of an engine of economic growth, but is also the biggest risk to future growth if the boom goes bust.
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The national economy usually weathers these storms with relatively minor damage. Second, the hurricane is a 'supply shock' -- a disruption to productive potential -- not a 'demand shock.' The same factors that threaten growth -- higher commodity prices, shipping bottlenecks, reduced local productive capacity -- also threaten inflation.
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This is one of the very-easy-to-interpret reports. In this one, everything lined up like the planets.
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They're voting with their wallets and they're spending. There's always a concern that people just don't like what they're seeing, but they are still buying.
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I think that (high inflation readings) would be almost the last straw to convince the Fed.
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Even in a healthy economy, you have layoffs, ... The Challenger number is more useful as a story telling device than an indicator.
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I think we know corporate profit growth can't stay at the rate we've seen in recent quarters. They (employers) have been squeezing the work force pretty aggressively, squeezing productivity out of workers and holding the line on wages. It's a matter of how much corporate profits slow down.
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In an ideal world, three simultaneous gradual adjustments would happen. The U.S. eliminates the budget deficit, China revalues by 30 percent and China works to rebalance growth more to consumption and less to exports. Of course none of this will happen and the pressure for protectionism from Congress grows.
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Firms have cut back on their capital spending budgets to the point where some of them are not even replacing worn-out equipment. It's been quite a dramatic pullback, and in some sense there's some pent-up demand out there for capital equipment.
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In terms of being a predictor for the national index, the Chicago number has a spotty record.